Edinburgh, 22 September (Argus) — Nigeria has released a new sector-wide climate plan to 2035, committing to cut greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions by 29pc by 2030 and 32pc by 2035 compared with 2018 levels. The targets are conditional on international financial support, while the country continues to back natural gas as a transition fuel.
The new nationally determined contribution (NDC) — a climate plan submitted to the UN — replaces Nigeria’s earlier goal of a 47pc cut by 2030 against a business-as-usual (BAU) scenario. BAU scenarios typically assume emissions based on current policies, leaving room for potential increases.
Nigeria’s updated targets set absolute emissions cuts in line with its net-zero goal by 2060. The country is now seeking to achieve emissions reduction of 184.9 mn t of CO2 equivalent (CO2e) in 2035 from 573.5 mn t of CO2e in 2018.
The new plan covers energy, industrial processes and product use (IPPU), agriculture, land-use change and forestry (LULUCF), transport and waste.
“In the energy sector, the goal to achieve a 60pc reduction in fugitive emissions (leaks and venting) from the oil and gas industry is a major focus with a mitigation [emissions cuts] potential of 27.3mn t CO2e,” according to the NDC. The NDC notes that the country’s transport sector has a mitigation potential of 44.mn t CO2e “from the widespread adoption of electric and CNG vehicles”.
Nigeria aims to lower its deforestation rate by 60pc, offering an emission cut potential of 304.8mn t CO2e. Fuel combustion targets include a 37pc electricity and 35pc LPG share in commercial cooking, and 27pc electricity and 31pc LPG in rural households. In urban households, electricity takes a 55pc share of energy use and LPG 35pc. The NDC also targets a complete phase-out of kerosine for lighting by 2035.
The plan reiterates Nigeria’s reliance on oil and gas, which account for two-thirds of government revenue and 90pc of foreign exchange earnings. The country expects the sector to grow, while “adopting sustainability measures” such as phasing out routine flaring and cutting fugitive emissions. “Natural gas use will be boosted, serving as a key transition fuel in Nigeria’s move towards increased adoption of renewable energy,” the NDC said.
Measures to cut emissions also include “the adoption of renewables” for electricity, with a goal of 100pc coverage by 2030. Nigeria aims to raise the share of on-grid and off-grid renewable capacity to 52pc by 2035, supported by natural gas as a “transition fuel”.
The government estimates the country will need $337bn to implement the NDC, including $195bn for mitigation and $141.5bn for adaptation. Adaptation refers to adjusting to the effects of climate change where possible.
Around 80pc of the plan’s commitments are conditional on international finance. The plan also estimates that the country will “unlock a carbon market worth between $736mn and $2.5bn by 2030.”
Nigeria plans to release an implementation plan following the NDC.
By Caroline Varin
