According to a recent analysis by John McCown, the container shipping sector is facing a notable decrease in its profits. During the second quarter of 2025, profits reached only US$4.4 billion, representing a 56% drop compared to the US$9.9 billion from the first quarter. Furthermore, this decline is even more alarming when compared to the same period the previous year, where profits of US$12.0 billion were reported, equivalent to a 63.7% setback.
McCown points out that the tariff restrictions imposed by the United States are a key factor behind this negative trend. These measures have significantly reduced trade flows to its ports, thus affecting approximately one third of global container traffic and impacting the entire global logistics chain.
From May to July, a 3.6% decrease in U.S. maritime imports was observed. The National Retail Federation anticipates that this year could end with a total contraction of 5.6%, which would imply operating during the coming months with a volume lower than usual.
Although the pandemic had brought significant opportunities for the sector—with accumulated profits close to US$400 billion—we now face a different outlook for 2025. McCown estimates that profits for the third quarter could range from just US$1.9 to US$2.5 billion , well below the US$26.4 billion earned during the same period in 2024.
Apart from the existing tariff tensions, a new policy from the USTR will be implemented starting in October, imposing additional charges on ships built or managed from China. This will have significant repercussions especially on the trans-Pacific route to the U.S. West Coast, where COSCO has a dominant share.
Despite the complicated environment, there continues to be steady activity regarding orders for new ships. According to McCown, this reflects greater discipline among shipping lines regarding the control of their supply; however, he warns that many contracts were signed before fully understanding how these new fees and regulations would impact them.
