Gene Seroka, Executive Director of the Port of Los Angeles, revealed that Chinese shipments, which constitute approximately 45% of the port’s volume, will be “very light at best” in the coming months. Cargo volumes through the Port of Los Angeles, the nation’s busiest container port and primary destination for landing Chinese imports alongside the Port of Long Beach, serve as a key indicator of U.S. economic health.
The impact is already evident, with 20 cancelled sailings scheduled for May, representing about a quarter of normal arrival volumes, according to Seroka.
The situation stems from President Trump’s “Liberation Day” tariffs that imposed a 145% duty on Chinese goods.
The National Retail Federation (NRF) anticipates this decline will mark the end of 19 consecutive months of year-over-year growth of U.S. imports. According to their Global Port Tracker report, May volumes are projected to fall to 1.66 million TEU, representing a 20.5% decrease from the previous year. The downturn is expected to continue into the summer, with June volumes forecasted at 1.57 million TEU, the lowest since February 2023.
The projections come after the Port of Los Angeles showed strong performance in the first quarter of 2025, processing 2.5 million TEUs, 5.2% ahead of last year’s strong pace. According to Seroka, the busy start to 2025 can be attributed to front-loading that began as early as last summer. “[We had] nine months of a run-up” with a “last burst in March,” he said.
However, Seroka warns that retailers currently maintain only 5-7 weeks of full inventories, after which consumers may face reduced product choices on shelves and price increases.
“Nobody wins,” Seroka stressed, noting that “the pain is felt on both sides of the Pacific.”
Seroka suggests that while shipping lines are likely to add some calls in Southeast Asia, ultimately other countries will be unable to compensate for China’s significant market share.
According to NRF projections, total U.S. imports could fall by at least 20% year over year in the second half of 2025, potentially resulting in a total cargo volume decline of 15% or more for the year—unless conditions change. Given the ongoing tariff negotiations, however, all forecasts remain highly uncertain.
