British and Dutch prompt wholesale gas prices rose on Thursday morning due to lower Norwegian gas exports and French nuclear output, but strong wind and mild weather capped the gains.
The Dutch front-month contract TRNLTTFMc1 was up 1.80 euros at 85.50 euros per megawatt hour (MWh) by 0934 GMT, while the contract for February delivery TRNLTTFMc2 rose by 3.73 euros to 87.73 /MWh, according to Refinitiv Eikon data.
“Key to the Europe energy puzzle is the availability of French nuclear,” said analysts at Jefferies. “French nuclear availability is down 13% vs last week to 35.3 gigawatts (GW) and remains below the 10-year range.”
The British contract for next-day delivery TRGBNBPD1 was up 4.25 pence at 160 pence per therm, according to Refinitiv Eikon data.
Norwegian gas nominations to Britain and continental Europe edged down at around 337 millions of cubic metres (mcm) per day on Thursday, compared to 333 mcm the previous day.
However, Eastbound gas flows on the Yamal-Europe pipeline to Poland from Germany rose, as did flows of Russian gas through Ukraine into Slovakia, pipeline operators data showed.
Central Europe and the UK were expected to experience “mild weekend and also milder than normal through the first 10 days of January” according to Refinitiv meteorologist Georg Muller.
Britain’s national weather service predicted Thursday and Friday to be windy days with a mixture of sunshine and showers.
UK peak wind generation is forecast at around 17.5 GW on Thursday, and will remain the same on Friday, out of total metered capacity of 22 GW, Elexon data showed.
Stronger wind output typically reduces demand for gas from power plants.
In the UK, the system was almost 15 mcm under-supplied with supply forecast at 257 mcm and demand at around 272 mcm, according to National Grid data.
Europe’s gas storage sites were around 83.2% full overall, with the region’s biggest consumer Germany seeing filling levels of 88.8%, according to Gas Infrastructure Europe data.
In the European carbon market, the benchmark contract CFI2Zc1 was down 0.61 euro at 85.44 euros a tonne.
