According to the Gas 2025 report by the International Energy Agency (IEA), which includes the latest developments in global gas markets and the medium-term outlook, although markets gradually rebalanced after the supply shock in the natural gas sector following the Russia-Ukraine War that started in 2022, prices remained well above historical levels.
This situation particularly limited demand in price-sensitive Asian markets. In this context, global gas demand is estimated to record an increase of below 1% this year, following the 2.8% growth in 2024.
Despite the expected slowdown in global gas demand growth this year, approximately 300 billion cubic meters per year of LNG export capacity is expected to come online worldwide by 2030, and this is expected to provide an annual increase of 250 billion cubic meters in net LNG supply capacity. This record-level increase is projected to be supported by growth in LNG capacity, particularly in the USA and Qatar. This expansion in LNG capacity is expected to strengthen global supply security and alleviate market pressures during periods of supply constraint. Barring unexpected disruptions, the increase in LNG capacity is forecast to lower prices and increase demand in the coming years.
According to the main scenario in the report, global gas demand is projected to increase by approximately 1.5% per year during the 2024-2030 period, with this growth corresponding to a total of 380 billion cubic meters. Half of this growth is expected to originate from the Asia-Pacific region. In his assessment of the report, IEA Director of Energy Markets and Security Keisuke Sadamori stated that the approaching “LNG wave” will provide some relief to global gas markets, which have been tight and volatile for years, saying, “New LNG supply, especially from the USA and Qatar, will create downward pressure on prices and provide support to gas importers worldwide. However, rising geopolitical tensions and economic uncertainty show there is no room for complacency. Global cooperation remains vital to ensure supply security, especially as increasing electricity consumption will boost gas demand in many regions.”
