In the first half of the year, the global new shipbuilding market showed signs of adjustment, with a noticeable decline in new order indicators worldwide. The shipping market experienced severe divergence, with freight rates fluctuating more violently. New shipbuilding prices began to soften amid dynamic adjustments in supply and demand. Market views became more divided, and it is necessary to cut through the fog of data to determine the direction of the new shipbuilding market.
1. Recognizing the facts of the market in the first half: New orders declined year-on-year, while deliveries and order backlogs continued to grow, with China maintaining its global lead.
A key observation is that, compared to the same period last year, global new orders fell by nearly 20%, while ship completions and order backlogs continued to rise.
From January to June, global new shipbuilding orders totaled 26.58 million CGT, down 17.5% year-on-year and 4% below the five-year average (2020–2024). In June alone, global orders reached 4.13 million CGT, a sharp decline of 42.5% year-on-year, with the divergence in order trends accelerating noticeably from June. In DWT terms, global new orders from January to June totaled 64.91 million DWT, down 22% year-on-year. Global ship deliveries in the first half reached 21.69 million CGT, up 9.6% year-on-year and 33.8% above the five-year average. As of the end of June, the global order backlog stood at 160 million CGT, up 18.6% year-on-year.
Container ships dominated new orders in the first half of the year, while tankers and bulk carriers saw significant declines.
From January to June, by CGT, the order structure by ship type was as follows: tankers (18%), bulk carriers (12%), container ships (40%), gas carriers (11%), passenger ships (10%), and other vessels (9%). Among major ship types, container ships and passenger ships saw year-on-year growth of 2.5 times and 34.6%, respectively, while tankers, gas carriers, and bulk carriers all experienced significant declines.
China leads comprehensively in global market share.
From January to June, China’s ship completions, new orders, and order backlogs accounted for 46.6%, 63.7%, and 57.2% of the global total by CGT, respectively, maintaining its global lead. China’s share of new orders in the first half even saw a slight increase compared to the same period last year. Among major shipbuilding nations, only Europe achieved year-on-year growth due to large cruise ship orders, while other countries saw declines. China’s decline was smaller than the global average, while South Korea’s fell by over 30%, and Japan’s dropped by nearly half. (Link: China’s Three Major Shipbuilding Indicators Maintain Global Lead in the First Half of 2025)
2. Assessing market conditions through supply-demand changes: Severe market divergence, rising delivery capacity, and new ship prices softening amid dynamic adjustments.
The downstream shipping market no longer maintains a “broad rally” but has gradually diverged and retreated to a “normal state,” with only a few segments like container shipping continuing to grow.
In June 2025, the composite freight rate stood at $25,500/day, down 8.4% year-on-year but up 17.7% from the start of the year. Over the past two years, freight rates have digested the impact of sudden factors and stabilized, generally fluctuating around $25,000/day, showing resilience as they gradually moved away from pandemic-era highs to form a “new price anchor.” Among specific ship types, only container ships and LPG carriers saw year-on-year freight rate growth, while tankers, bulk carriers, car carriers, and LNG carriers experienced significant declines.
Total delivery capacity continues to rise, with South Korea’s growth significantly outpacing China and Japan.
Global completions in the first half rose 9.6% year-on-year, with full-year deliveries expected to approach 45 million CGT, setting a new recent high. South Korean shipyards saw the fastest delivery growth at 18.1%, far exceeding the global average of 9.6%. China and Japan grew by 4.7% and 4.2%, respectively. Against the backdrop of declining new orders, rising delivery capacity will also prompt market price adjustments.
New ship prices show signs of softening, with demand-side influences stronger.
Clarkson’s new ship price index stood at 187.11 points in June, up 0.2% month-on-month but down 0.1% year-on-year and 1.2% from the start of 2025. The index has slowly declined from 189 points to around 187, now roughly flat with last year but still at historically high levels. Among ship types, only container ship prices saw slight growth, while other major types declined. The China Association of the National Shipbuilding Industry (CANSI) noted in an early-year article (Link: 2024 Global New Shipbuilding Market Review and Outlook) that “price is a key signal of market trends,” reflecting changes in supply-demand dynamics. In the first half, demand was more affected by non-market “distortions,” slowing conversion and increasing hesitation, which impacted order finalization.
3. Looking ahead to the second half based on the first half: Rational view of short-term fluctuations, anchoring direction with confidence, and achieving high-quality stable growth is key.
The new shipbuilding market has grown for five years, and current changes represent normal cyclical fluctuations, with first-half order volumes aligning with post-recovery expectations.
A rational view of market fluctuations requires considering both the high base effect of 2024 and the fact that new ship prices remain firm, with no structural shift in supply-demand dynamics. Global new orders in the first half still exceeded 25 million CGT, with full-year expectations of 45–50 million CGT, consistent with CANSI’s early-year outlook. (For more forecasts, see: 2024 Global New Shipbuilding Market Review and Outlook) Additionally, findings from the International Shipbuilding Experts Forecast Meeting (ISFEM 2025) support sustained global newbuilding demand at around 45 million CGT annually over the medium to long term. (Link: ISFEM 2025 Held in Yokohama, Japan)
The foundation for stable market growth remains solid, with urgent demand driven by global shipping decarbonization rules and fleet aging.
In April 2025, the IMO’s Marine Environment Protection Committee (MEPC 83) further strengthened net-zero emissions regulations, combining mandatory reduction targets with greenhouse gas pricing to enforce fleet greening through technical and economic measures. Additionally, many ships delivered during the last supercycle will enter replacement phases, overlapping with net-zero mandates, forming a key basis for future market growth. Nearly half of the current fleet will need operational adjustments, retrofits, or replacements to meet 2030 compliance deadlines, further supporting market stability.
“Deliver ships, deliver them fast, and deliver them well”—the essence of market competition remains unchanged.
Currently, the global order backlog spans nearly four years, and high-quality capacity offering delivery within four or even three years (by 2028) remains in demand. Facing future uncertainties, Chinese shipbuilders must stay alert to market changes but also maintain confidence in the market’s fundamentals. By strengthening internal capabilities, leveraging advantages, and ensuring steady progress in technology, quality, and delivery, they can inject confidence into global maritime development with their resilience and certainty.
Data Sources
Unless otherwise noted, data in this article are from CANSI, Clarksons, VesselsValue, official company releases, and other statistical and informational channels.
Original by Cao Bo
