Russia’s oil and gas revenue in April is seen falling by 22% to 0.96 trillion roubles ($11.60 billion) from the same month a year ago due to weaker oil prices and a stronger rouble, Reuters calculations showed on Thursday.
Oil and gas revenue has been the most important source of cash for the Kremlin, accounting for about a third to a half of total federal budget proceeds over the past decade.
The proceeds would be also down 11% from March because of a smaller profit-based tax.
According to Reuters calculations, the Russian oil price in roubles has so far declined in April to 4,620 per barrel from 6,965 per barrel in April 2024.
Russia’s oil and gas revenue could decline by 13% year on year in January – April to 3.6 trillion roubles, according to Reuters calculations.
The finance ministry will publish its estimates on May 7.
Russia has heavily increased defence and security spending since launching its military campaign in Ukraine, what it calls its special military operation, in February 2022.
Russia has cut its forecast for 2025-2027 oil and gas export revenue, a key source of funding for the state budget, due to weaker oil prices, seeing the proceeds falling by 15% this year, according to an economy ministry document seen by Reuters.
The economy ministry has previously cut its 2025 oil price forecast by nearly 17%, and the Russian central bank has warned that oil prices could face a period of weakness for several years.
Urals prices fell to their lowest levels since 2023 in April at around $53 per barrel, and they traded below $60 last week.
Source: Reuters
