Global container freight markets are showing increasing signs of weakness, with spot rates continuing their downward trend amid worsening supply–demand dynamics and growing overcapacity concerns.
This has also been confirmed by the latest Cargo Movement Update (CMU) compiled by the South African Association of Freight Forwarders and Business Unity SA.
The CMU points out that the Drewry World Container Index (WCI) fell by around 5% week-on-week to approximately $1 669 per 40ft container, marking the 16th consecutive weekly decline.
The maritime consultancy attributed the persistent weakening to deteriorating market fundamentals and forecasts further rate contractions in the coming weeks.
Industry sources report that current spot levels are among the lowest seen since January 2024, with major east–west trade lanes – such as Shanghai to Los Angeles – experiencing sharp year-on-year rate drops.
Analysts note that in several markets, spot prices have now fallen below contract rates, giving shippers increased leverage in rate negotiations.
Looking ahead, structural overcapacity is expected to intensify.
Market analysis from Sea-Intelligence suggests that the container shipping sector is entering a cyclical overcapacity phase, with the supply–demand imbalance projected to peak around 2027 – potentially reaching levels reminiscent of the 2016 rate war.
Commentary from Port Technology International and Port News supports this outlook, highlighting a shift from recent capacity shortages to a period of structural oversupply. The arrival of new vessels, combined with subdued demand growth, is expected to continue exerting downward pressure on freight rates well into the latter half of the decade.
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