THREAT & RISK ASSESSMENT BRIEF UPDATE
Brief Update No 25/19 Date: 18 September 2025
STATEMENT
This document has been approved for distribution by SEA GUARDIAN S.G. Ltd / Operations Department. The provided Intel and Information derive from open sources, the Institute for the Study of War (ISW), the Joint Maritime Information Center (JMIC) and United Kingdom Maritime Trade Operations (UKMTO), respective Web Pages and products retrofit the company’s Strategic / Operational and Security situational awareness processes, for risks and threat /impact to the Security of Maritime operations. All rights reserved, “no part of this Risk assessment may be reproduced in any form (electronical, mechanical, paper or other means) without written permission by SEA GUARDIAN S.G. Ltd” which maintain the rights for personal data of this document writers. Under no Circumstances can SEA GUARDIAN S.G.
Ltd be held responsible for any loss or damage caused by a reader’s reliance on information obtained by this Assessment, especially on its firms, company’s management or individual decision-making.
Objectives
To provide in a 15-day cycle, the maritime industry and Security Stake or Shareholders with:
Political / Strategic-Operational /Info collection “app’s chart snap”
Make a call or e-mail us for a free trial period:
E:intelsec@ CY: +357 25 351125 | GR: +30 210 9703322
info@ |
Sea Guardian SG Ltd Intel & Security
RECENT KEY DEVELOPMENTS
MARITIME SECURITY INCIDENTS: August 28-September 16, 251
1 In accordance to JMIC /or UKMTO sources
THE GEOPOLITICAL PROFILES & INTERNATIONAL SECURITY (G3is)
THREAT ASSESSMENT UPDATE:
Military Operations
Libya – Central Mediterranean
Syria
Lebanon
Gaza-Israel
Sudan-Eritrea–Ethiopia
Red Sea – Yemen
• The threat assessment due to “military actions – terrorism like” is HIGH.
Northern Persian Gulf / Iran-Israel conflict
Russia – Ukraine / Black Sea NW part
Terrorism – piracy and also cargo theft, smuggling, stowaways
• As reported and analyzed in SEA GUARDIAN SECURITY ASSESSMENT 25/15, July 10, actions bordering on terrorism in terms of pirate attack methods constitute the next future nature of threats, which suggests a revision of the approach to dealing with threats.
RISK ASSESSMENT
Gulf of Guinea
Central Mediterranean Sea
East Mediterranean Sea
Suez Canal – Northern Red Sea
Bab-el-Mandeb Straits – Southern Rea Sea
Gulf of Aden – Somalia
Arabian Sea – Gulf of Oman
Hormuz Straits – Persian Gulf
Malacca Straits
Black Sea / East Part
Baltic Sea / NE part
• The overall risk of incidents is “HIGH” which is analyzed in: “borderline of terrorism, attempts for piracy, robbery” as “NSR” / for “Hijacking, opening fire, crews’ life loses” as “MEDIUM” and for “Cyberattacks, electronic harassment of Nautical aids” as “HIGH”.
Baltic Sea / West part
• Indicators altering the “risks levels” are as initially cited in SEA GUARDIAN SECURITY ASSESSMENT 25/18, August 27.
• The overall risk of incidents is “MEDIUM” which is analyzed in: “borderline of terrorism, attempts for piracy, robbery” as “NSR” / for “Hijacking, opening fire, crews’ life loses” as “LOW” and for “Cyberattacks, electronic harassment of Nautical aids” as “HIGH”.
Piracy – Boarding conditions, kidnapping, firing, electronic harassment
• The indicators that differentiate the “risks levels” remain the same as in SEA GUARDIAN SECURITY ASSESSMENT 25/18, August 27.
OVERALL ASSESSMENT – CONSULTING
Usefull links for conflict indexes and picture of piracy attacks in:ACLED and /ICC.
Useful documents / manuals and links
a. For GNSS interference:
/1/ G1082 Ed2.1 An Overview of AIS June 2016
/2/ EUROCONTROL Guidelines on a Process for Civil and Military GNSS Interference Testing
/3/ Global Navigation Satellite System GNSS Radio Frequency Interference
/4/ ICAO GNSS RFI MITIGATION PLAN
b.
For other shipping issues:
Companies under sanction by Ukraine (Black Sea):Database Of Legal Entities Under Sanctions
Strategic-Operational /Risk Assessment Levels for areas / domains under permanent monitoring
Make a call or e-mail us for a free trial period:
E:intelsec@ CY: +357 25 351125 | GR: +30 210 9703322
info@ |
Sea Guardian SG Ltd Intel & Security
Sea Guardian S.G. Ltd / Intel Department ( / +30 6944373465)
can support your operational planning, assist in determining the risk assessment and provide assistance in decision making by producing tailor-made assessments upon request on ports in the region, on routes, on cargos and specific merchant vessels. You can refer to our previous Threat & Risk assessment analysis briefs for more information and background analysis on the events and situation in the region.
/ info@ / tel. +302109703322
Viewers can log here below and see Sea Guardian’s previous report:
