Sea-Intelligence has analyzed the potential impact on container shipping if carriers resume using the Suez Canal following the recent ceasefire between Israel and Hamas.
The company emphasized that its analysis does not predict when the re-opening might occur, noting that the Houthis have not declared a ceasefire and that shipping lines did not revert to the Suez route during the previous truce.
According to issue 737 of the Sea-Intelligence Sunday Spotlight, the re-opening could lead to two main outcomes: a release of global vessel capacity currently tied up in longer voyages around Africa, and a temporary surge in cargo arrivals in Europe.
The analysis estimated that round-Africa diversions on Asia-Europe and Asia–North America East Coast routes require about four additional vessels per round trip.
The firm modeled several scenarios, from an immediate switch back to the Suez Canal to gradual returns over two, four, or six weeks.
An instant switch could double arrivals from Asia for two weeks, creating a 39% increase in total port handling volumes compared with the previous record high.
Even a gradual phase-in over eight weeks would still push volumes 10% above past peaks. Sea-Intelligence noted that the previous record, in March 2025, already led to significant congestion at European ports.
The company calculated that a full return to the Suez route would free approximately 2.1 million TEU of nominal capacity, equal to 6.5% of the current global fleet.
Sea-Intelligence is a Denmark-based maritime data analytics and consulting firm specializing in container shipping performance, reliability metrics, and market modeling. The company publishes the Sunday Spotlight, a weekly analytical report widely followed in the shipping and logistics sectors.
