According to the shipbroker, “exports from Australia increased by +0.2% y-o-y in Jan-Sep 2022 to 661.2 mln tonnes, also marginally above 2020 levels, and a new record high. Exports from Brazil, on the other hand, declined by -3.8% y-o-y so far this year to 249.3 mln tonnes, from 259.2 mln tonnes in the same period of last year, although they were still higher than in 2020. Demand is weighted down by a weakening economy in China, with iron ore imports into the country down by -2.2% y-o-y to 789.3 mln tonnes in the first 9 months of 2022. On the other hand, the European Union is seeing an (already weakening…) revival, with imports up +1.0% y-o-y to 63.1 mln tonnes in the same period. Imports into Europe, however, are still well below the levels of 2019 (71.4 mln t in the Jan-Sep period of that year) and 2018 (73.2 mln t)”.
Banchero Costa said that “South Africa is the third largest exporter of iron ore in the world after Australia and Brazil, with a 3.9% market share. South Africa’s seaborne iron ore exports in the 12 months of 2021 increased by +3.5% y-o-y to 56.8 mln tonnes. This was the first rebound after many years of declining volumes. In 2020, iron ore exports from South Africa declined by -3.2% y-o-y to 54.9 mln tonnes. Already in 2019, South Africa recorded a decline in exports of -0.5% y-o-y to 56.7 mln tonnes from 57.0 mln tonnes in 2018, which in turn was a -6.5% y-o-y decline from 61.0 mln tonnes in 2017. After the rebound last year, things continued to improve also in 2022. In the first 9 months of 2022, South Africa exported 43.4 mln tonnes of iron ore, up +2.9% y-o-y from the same period last year, and the highest since 2017”.
“All iron ore cargoes exported by South Africa are loaded at the port of Saldanha Bay. The vast majority (88%) of volumes are loaded on Capesize vessels, with the rest on /Supramax. Strangely enough, about half of the Handymax cargoes are shipped all the way to China. Overall, in terms of destinations for iron ore exports from South Africa, things shifted little in recent years. Mainland China is still the top iron ore importer from South Africa, with an overall 52.3% share of shipments from Saldanha Bay. Imports to China from South Africa increased by +2.3% y-o-y to 22.7 mln t in the first 9 months of 2022, from a record 22.2 mln tonnes in the same period of 2021. This however was still well below the 27.2 mln tonnes in Jan-Sep 2020. The second largest destination for South African ore is the European Union, with a 25.6% share. Shipments from South Africa to the EU27 declined by -2.9% y-o-y to 11.1 mln tonnes in the first 9 months of 2022, from 11.4 mln tonnes in the same period of 2021. This was also well above the 6.8 mln tonnes in Jan-Sep 2020 and the 8.8 mln t in Jan-Sep 2019. Export to Turkey are up by +226.3% y-o-y to 1.1 mln tonnes in Jan-Sep 2022 from 0.3 mln t in Jan-Sep 2021. Volumes from South Africa to South Korea increased by +14.2% y-o-y to 3.3 mln tonnes so far this year. To India volumes are up +60.8% y-oy to 0.7 mln tonnes in Jan-Sep 2022 from 0.4 mln t in Jan-Sep 2021. To the UK it’s -24.8% y-o-y to 0.5 mln tonnes from 0.7 mln t in the same period last year”, Banchero Costa concluded.
