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Suez Canal: Why the surge in ship traffic could trigger a strategic crisis

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At the beginning of July, Osama Rabie, Chairman of the Suez Canal Authority, met Mohamed El-Moselhy, Chairman of Arkas Egypt Shipping Agencies, and Ali Bekmezci, Chairman of ALCOR Shipping Line, to discuss the increase in the number of ships transiting the canal. The main aim of the discussions was to strengthen cooperation between the parties and encourage tankers and bulk carriers operating between Europe and Asia to return to this strategic route.

Proposals included increasing the frequency of ALCOR voyages and introducing new incentive mechanisms to stimulate traffic. At the meeting, Mr. Rabie underlined the Authority’s commitment to maintaining fluid communication with its partners, while adapting services to the growing needs of the global shipping market.

The idea of increasing the number of ships transiting the Suez Canal is raising concerns due to its sensitivity. Recent incidents of blockages, such as that of Ever Given, and geopolitical tensions in the Red Sea underline the risks of congestion and disruption, threatening the stability of this strategic route.

The Suez Canal is a strategic waterway linking the Red Sea to the Mediterranean. It enables ships to bypass Africa and considerably reduce transport distances between Asia and Europe. This maritime artery is essential to world trade, facilitating the passage of around 12% of international maritime traffic.

However, this strategic importance also makes the canal a potential target in geopolitical conflicts. Tensions in the Middle East, particularly in the Red Sea, threaten the safety of ships using this route. For example, recent attacks on merchant vessels by Houthi rebels have forced several carriers to divert their routes via the Cape of Good Hope, thereby increasing transport costs and times. CMA-CGM and the giant MSC decided to divert their ships after several attacks. “In view of the security situation in the Red Sea and to ensure the safety of our crew, MSC ships will not transit the Suez Canal eastbound and westbound until the Red Sea passage is safe again,” wrote MSC in a press release.

The idea of building a canal linking the Red Sea to the Mediterranean had been on the drawing board since antiquity, but it was only in the 19th century that the project took shape. In 1859, Ferdinand de Lesseps obtained authorization to begin work, which was completed in 1869. The canal was inaugurated under the joint ownership of France and Egypt.

Since its opening, the Suez Canal has been at the heart of numerous geopolitical conflicts. The 1956 Suez Crisis, in which Israel, France and the UK attempted to regain control of the canal after it had been nationalized by Gamal Abdel Nasser, is a prominent example of these tensions.

More recently, attacks by Houthi rebels in the Red Sea have further disrupted maritime traffic, underlining the strategic vulnerability of this waterway. In 2024, the canal saw its traffic fall by 42% in the last two months due to attacks by Houthi rebels who support Hamas against Israel.

The Suez Canal has seen several major incidents over the decades. In June 1967, during the Six-Day War, fifteen ships were caught in the crossfire between Israel and the bloc formed by Egypt, Syria and Jordan, leading to a prolonged closure of the canal.

More recently, in March 2021, the container ship Ever Given ran aground across the canal, blocking one of the world’s busiest trade routes for six days.

This incident highlighted the logistical and human challenges of navigating this strategic waterway.

In March 2024, another incident rocked the canal when the vessel Dali ran aground, causing a bridge to collapse in Baltimore. The Dali experienced a significant loss of power on two occasions prior to the impact, leading to a sudden restart of the main engine.

On March 23, 2021, the 400-meter-long, 220,000-ton container ship Ever Given ran aground across the Suez Canal. Owned by Japanese company Shoei Kisen and operated by Evergreen Marine, the vessel blocked one of the world’s busiest trade routes for six days.

Efforts to free the vessel were titanic. Tugs, dredgers, and excavators were mobilized to extract the mud and sand from under the bow and stern of the vessel. Teams also had to lighten cargo and fuel to enable the vessel to float higher in the water.

The grounding of the Ever Given was caused by a combination of factors, including extreme weather conditions and human error. A severe sandstorm reduced visibility and disrupted the ship’s navigation systems, making it difficult to maneuver in the narrowest section of the canal.

Investigations revealed that the vessel had experienced a significant loss of power on two occasions prior to impact, leading to a sudden restart of the main engine. The large plume of black smoke demonstrates the injection of a large quantity of fuel, which the engine was unable to burn completely.

The exact causes of this engine failure have yet to be determined, but it is clear that human error and technical failures played a major role in this incident. The training and awareness of maritime crews to the specific risks of the Suez Canal are essential to prevent future incidents.

Ever Given’s blockade of the Suez Canal had significant global economic repercussions. Some 422 ships, loaded with 26 million tonnes of cargo, were blocked during this period. Global maritime trade lost between $6 and $10 billion per day of blockage, according to insurer Allianz.

Egypt lost between $12 and $14 million per day the canal was closed, underlining the economic importance of this waterway. The blockage also caused major disruptions to global supply chains, affecting various economic sectors including logistics, retail, and manufacturing.

In response to the incident, the Suez Canal Authority (SCA) announced an expansion and deepening of the section that had been paralyzed by Ever Given’s grounding. The aim of this work is to improve ship maneuverability in the narrowest sections of the canal and reduce the risk of grounding.

Despite recent incidents, the Suez Canal remains a vital artery for world trade. Human error, logistical challenges, and geopolitical tensions have all contributed to the disruption of this strategic waterway. However, coordinated rescue efforts, investment in infrastructure, and maritime crew training offer solutions to prevent future incidents and guarantee the safety of maritime traffic.

It’s time for the international community to recognize the importance of this canal and work together to protect and modernize it. For every incident, no matter how minor, has significant global economic repercussions. And in an increasingly interconnected world, the stability of the Suez Canal is essential to our common future.

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