In a few weeks, American farmers will harvest this year’s soybeans—tens of millions of tons of output, waiting to be loaded and shipped out.
But right now, they face a severe problem: China is not buying.
China is the world’s largest soybean importer, but this fall, not a single shipment of U.S. soybeans has been ordered.
It is worth noting that at this time last year, Chinese buyers had already pre-ordered about 13 million tons of U.S. soybeans, and shipments had begun.
Time waits for no one, and American farmers and agricultural exporters are growing restless.
According to the South China Morning Post, the U.S. government will send a group of American growers and agricultural exporters to China, marking the third annual visit organized by the U.S. Department of Agriculture.
Behind these frequent trips lies the urgent desire of the U.S. agricultural sector to “seek orders.”
As early as August, the American Soybean Association issued a warning: “As autumn approaches, we still have not finalized soybean purchase agreements with China, which will severely impact U.S. soybean farmers.”
In Iowa, USA, farmer Tim Maxwell, who has been farming for decades, is growing more anxious by the day. Affected by tariff policies, Maxwell worries that his crops cannot be sold as smoothly as in previous years. “This year’s yield and weather conditions were ideal, but there is little market interest, which will put tremendous pressure on many farmers.”
The crisis is not limited to soybeans. The BBC reported that since U.S. President Trump announced so-called “reciprocal tariffs” in April, China’s orders for U.S. agricultural products have sharply declined overall, dealing a heavy blow to American farmers.
Since the beginning of Trump’s first term, China’s purchases of U.S. soybeans have been fluctuating. Data shows that the market share of U.S. soybeans in China has dropped from about 40% in 2016 to around 20% in 2024.
Meanwhile, South American countries are filling the gap left by U.S. soybeans in China. For example, in 2024, China imported 74.65 million tons of soybeans from Brazil, a year-on-year increase of 6.7%, accounting for over 70% of total imports.
In addition to switching suppliers, China is further reducing its reliance on U.S. soybeans by optimizing feed ratios and increasing domestic soybean production capacity.
Christopher Wolf, an agricultural economist at Cornell University, said: “Procurement trends in the Chinese market are crucial. Tariffs have caused significant volatility, and this uncertainty is making life difficult for American farmers.”
The costs of the tariff war initiated by the Trump administration are beginning to surface. Bloomberg data from July showed that bankruptcy filings among small businesses in the U.S. agricultural sector have risen to a five-year high. Farmers in the Midwest, who twice helped Trump enter the White House, could not hide their anger—”It’s time to lower tariffs.”
In reality, the Trump administration is not inactive. It has attempted to alleviate agricultural pressure by expanding domestic and international sales channels and increasing soybean product production, but the reality is not that simple.
Ragland, chairman of the American Soybean Association and a soybean farmer from Kentucky, bluntly stated that domestic and international demand cannot make up for the gap left by declining Chinese purchases, leading to falling prices for U.S. crops.
Chicago-based agricultural resource company predicts that even if other countries increase purchases of U.S. soybeans, if China continues to refuse purchases by mid-November, the total loss of U.S. soybean sales to China this year could reach 14 to 16 million tons.
“American farmers are going to have a big harvest,” Trump excitedly posted on social media in March, just before announcing the “reciprocal tariffs.”
Six months later, the soybeans have indeed been harvested, but the orders have not come, and the applause has faded.
(“Sanlihe” Studio)
