On the political front, Russia is seeking to consolidate alliances with non-Nato countries located in the Baltic region
Last July, the Russian Ministry of Foreign Affairs published an article in the magazine International Affairs, officially linked to the government, calling for the eastern part of the Baltic Sea to be considered a potential theater of military operations. This intervention is part of a series of statements and actions suggesting a growing Russian strategic interest in the Baltic region.
The author of the article, Nikolay Mezhevich, argues that the Baltic countries, together with Finland and Sweden, represent a direct threat to Russia’s security. According to Mezhevich, Nato is seeking to transform this region into a “gray zone,” an area of strategic uncertainty that could favor hostile actions against Russia. This narrative is based on a reinterpretation of Western strategic doctrines, presenting the alliance’s actions as direct provocations.
In parallel, Russia is intensifying its military activities in the region. The joint Russian-Belarusian exercises “Zapad 2025” are taking place near the border with Poland, a Nato member country. These exercises include simulations of large-scale war scenarios and the deployment of new warfare technologies, such as advanced drones and electronic warfare systems. The stated goal is to improve the operational readiness of the Russian armed forces and test new combat strategies.
Furthermore, Russia is strengthening its naval presence in the Baltic Sea. New nuclear submarines and warships have been deployed, and existing naval bases are undergoing significant expansions. This expansion aims to ensure control of maritime routes vital for Russian exports, with possible repercussions on international commercial traffic passing through the Baltic, and to project military power in a strategically important region.
On the political front, Russia is seeking to consolidate alliances with non-Nato countries located in the Baltic region. Through bilateral agreements and economic initiatives, Moscow is seeking to influence the policies of countries such as Belarus and Moldova, attempting to create a “zone of influence” that could act as a buffer between Russia and the West.
In response to these moves, the Baltic countries and Nato are increasing their defense activities in the region. Military contingents in Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania have been strengthened, and joint exercises are underway to improve cooperation between the armed forces of the alliance members. Furthermore, advanced air defense systems have been implemented, and communication and intelligence systems have been improved.
The growing militarization of the Baltic region raises concerns for the stability and security of Eastern Europe. Russia’s actions could be interpreted as a response to perceived threats from the West, but they could also be seen as an attempt to expand its influence in the region. Any tensions or conflicts could have direct repercussions on maritime traffic, disrupting crucial trade routes connecting the Baltic Sea with the rest of Europe and increasing risks for international trade.
Moscow is preparing the ground for a possible escalation in the Baltic region, using a combination of military, political, and diplomatic actions. As tensions rise, it is essential that the involved parties work to reduce misunderstandings and promote dialogue, in order to avoid a conflict that could have devastating consequences for the security and stability of Europe.
