The conflict between Israel and Iran stretched into a fourth consecutive day on Monday, shaking global energy markets and placing the maritime industry on edge. While Israeli airstrikes have so far avoided directly targeting Iran’s crude oil infrastructure, a reported explosion at a natural gas plant near the massive South Pars field over the weekend has heightened concerns of broader regional destabilization, while Iran has claimed it has successfully struck the Israeli port city of Haifa.
The specter of a widening war in the oil-rich Middle East, which accounts for almost a third of global crude flows, has driven energy prices and tanker freight rates higher, as owners, traders, and insurers weigh the increasing risks of operating in the region.
Amid the escalating conflict, maritime authorities have flagged significant electronic interference affecting commercial vessels across the Middle East. The Joint Maritime Information Centre (JMIC), part of the US-led Combined Maritime Forces, confirmed on Saturday that ships operating near the Persian Gulf and Eastern Mediterranean have reported false positioning signals and severe GPS spoofing.
A now-familiar circular spoofing pattern was observed off the coast of Haifa, as a result of distorted GPS signals, according to data reviewed by commercial tracking platforms. The JMIC has urged ship operators to closely monitor navigation systems and prepare alternative communication and positioning methods to avoid incidents at sea.
Although Iran’s oil export terminals have not yet been hit, analysts remain focused on the potential for Iran to retaliate by disrupting traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, a vital artery through which approximately 20 million barrels per day of crude and products transit.
While a full shutdown of Hormuz is considered unlikely and logistically unsustainable, a partial disruption through harassment, seizures, or limited attacks on ships remains plausible. Shipbroker Gibson warned that even minor disturbances could shrink the pool of owners willing to transit the strait, driving freight rates higher and potentially shifting demand to Atlantic Basin crude and other safer loading zones.
There is growing concern that Iran could activate proxy forces to expand the conflict beyond the Gulf. Maritime security analysts warn that Houthi rebels in Yemen, whose naval capabilities were hit by US strikes earlier this year, could resume attacks on Red Sea shipping in a show of support for Tehran. UK-flagged vessels received warnings on Friday against transiting the Southern Red Sea.
Starting with the Informa group in 2000 in Hong Kong, Sam Chambers became editor of Maritime Asia magazine, as well as East Asia editor for the world’s oldest newspaper, Lloyd’s List. In 2005 an independent career followed, writing for a variety of titles including taking on the role of Asia editor for Seatrade magazine and China correspondent for Supply Chain Asia. His work has also appeared in The Economist, The New York Times, The Sunday Times, and the International Herald Tribune.
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