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Moving in to 2026 the “chokepoint map” is no longer a theory exercise. Before every long-haul fixture, owners and chartering desks are weighing very real trade-offs between Red Sea transits, Cape detours, war-risk premiums, naval escort availability and charter wording. Nowhere is that more obvious than in the Red Sea and Bab el Mandeb, where Houthi attacks since late 2023 have driven war-risk premiums from roughly 0.3 to around 0.7–1 percent of hull value and pushed a huge share of Asia–Europe container traffic away from Suez toward the Cape, adding up to ten days and about one million dollars in extra fuel on some voyages.
⏱️ Click for 2-minute summary
Quick view of where global instability and bottlenecks meet voyage P&L.
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New chokepoint map – quick briefing table
🖨️ Print this table
Use this as a one page reference when you explain to boards, lenders or charterers
how your fleet is exposed to global flashpoints and what you are watching in each lane.
| 1️⃣ | Red Sea & Bab el Mandeb | Missile and drone attacks on merchant ships, high war risk pricing and Cape detours that reshape Asia to Europe trading patterns. | Decide when to accept, detour or decline, and lock in clear rules for who pays war risk, guards and extra steaming days. |
| 2️⃣ | Black Sea & Turkish Straits | Live conflict zone with port strikes, drifting mines and shadow fleet exposure, all passing through a narrow legal and physical gate at the straits. | Separate risk by port group and cargo, and make sure insurance, charter wording and routing reflect that split. |
| 3️⃣ | Strait of Hormuz & Gulf of Oman | Tanker boardings, seizures and political signalling in a lane that carries a large share of global crude and gas exports. | Choose which ships, flags and counterparties you will use here and align transit rules with flag, P&I and war risk guidance. |
| 4️⃣ | South China Sea & Taiwan Strait | Military drills, overflights and exclusion zones in one of the busiest container and energy corridors on earth. | Map which loops truly depend on the strait and keep realistic reroute plans and charter clauses ready for crisis scenarios. |
| 5️⃣ | Panama Canal (climate chokepoint) | Water stress and draft limits that can suddenly cut capacity, send queues higher and push cargo to Suez, Cape or land bridges. | Track draft, slots and tolls by season and decide when to pay for priority, when to wait and when to reroute. |
| 6️⃣ | Suez Canal & Eastern Med approaches | Link between Red Sea risk and crowded Mediterranean traffic, with blockage and toll shocks that can ripple worldwide. | Compare Suez and Cape economics at current prices and make sure decisions on routing are visible and defensible. |
| 7️⃣ | Baltic & North Sea subsea corridor | Hybrid warfare pressure on pipelines, power cables and data lines under very dense merchant and offshore traffic. | Align navigation, anchoring and offshore procedures with new rules that protect subsea infrastructure. |
| 8️⃣ | Gulf of Guinea & West Africa routes | Lower but still serious risk of armed robbery and kidnap around offshore fields, terminals and coastal trades. | Match security measures, routing and insurance to current attack patterns and the actual time ships spend drifting or at anchor. |
| 9️⃣ | Western Indian Ocean & Somali Basin | Detour lanes around the Cape where traffic density and a modest piracy resurgence have brought risk back. | Set clear rules on distance offshore, speed and security when using detour routes instead of the Red Sea and Suez. |
The pattern across all nine is simple: the fleets that do best are the ones that turn
headlines into written rules, charter language and routing choices long before the next
voyage order arrives.
