According to an analysis by Drewry, canceled voyages for the next four weeks will reach 90 blank sailings out of a total of 716 announced departures. On average, 87% of ships are expected to begin their voyages as planned.
The consultancy indicated that between week 40 (September 29 to October 5) and week 44 (October 27 to November 2) the main routes; that is, the Transpacific, Transatlantic, and Asia-North Europe and Mediterranean, will accumulate a cancellation of 13% of total departures.
In the next five weeks, it is contemplated that the majority of blank sailings will take place on the East Transpacific route (50%), followed by Asia-North Europe and Mediterranean (37%); and West Transpacific (13%).
“Excess supply, weak demand, and increasing congestion are leading carriers to intensify itinerary cancellations in October (blank sailings) in an attempt to stabilize falling rates,” Drewry reported.
“Announced cancellations for weeks 40–41 increased by 22% in just one week, from 55 to 67, as part of the supply adjustment ahead of factory closures for the Golden Week in China. During this period, 87% of scheduled weekly departures are expected to take place as planned. It is worth noting that the Ocean Alliance presents the highest cancellation rate, at 19%, mostly concentrated on the East Transpacific route,” it added.
Furthermore, the consultancy stated that “operational challenges are aggravating market weakness. Delays caused by typhoons in southern China and strikes in Italian ports are further affecting schedules, intensifying congestion in Asia and Europe.”
“Shippers are recommended to maintain flexibility, secure space in advance, and closely monitor operational risks,” it concluded.
