According to Drewry, the Chinese halt on purchases from the United States could cancel up to 190 Panamax voyages between October and November
Beijing – Drewry’s analysis highlights that Beijing’s decision to suspend the purchase of US soybeans, in response to the new wave of tariffs imposed by Washington on furniture, trucks, and pharmaceutical products, risks completely blocking maritime traffic of the legume between the Far East and North America in the months of October and November.
Under normal conditions, approximately 12 million tonnes of soybeans are shipped from the United States to China during the autumn two-month period, equivalent to 120 billion tonne-miles, or 12% of the global demand for Panamax transport — the bulk carriers that handle almost the entirety of soybean cargoes bound for Asia.
The suspension of imports could therefore lead to the cancellation of 180-190 Panamax voyages, with a consequent significant drop in freight rates.
Drewry recalls that China imports 25-30 million tonnes of soybeans from the US each year and emphasizes that, although the United States may seek new buyers, no market will be able to compensate for Chinese demand. Similarly, Beijing will struggle to find alternative suppliers capable of covering its own needs.
According to the British consultancy, it is likely that trade will resume after a period of tension, but a prolonged commercial stalemate, even of just a few months, could hit employment and Panamax freight rates hard right during the peak shipping season.
