Despite unfavourable conditions in the US, research by Rystad Energy shows 16 GW of new offshore wind capacity will enter operation by the end of 2025, with China playing an ever-growing role
As the US aims to decouple from Chinese supply chains by doubling down on its domestic oil and gas resources, industries such as offshore wind have faced a barrage of economic challenges, from stop-work orders to the rollback of tax breaks and rising inflationary costs.
Research by Rystad Energy shows that of the projects currently being developed, two thirds of them are in China. By 2030, Rystad Energy forecasts China’s offshore wind projects will account for 45% of the world’s cumulative capacity, making it difficult for the US market to compete in the long term, regardless of policy reversals.
Rystad Energy senior vice president and head of offshore wind research Alexander Fløtre said, “It is clear the energy policy shift in the US not only halts or slows progress on offshore wind projects, but pushes European wind developers away from US investment. The US-China supply chain may be decoupled, but China’s position as a global renewables leader may have only been strengthened because of it.”
The energy industry research and market intelligence company said some clear effects of the change in US policy are emerging. US renewable energy investments have plunged 36% year-on-year so far in 2025, whereas European investments are rising as companies redirect capital away from the US after stop work orders were issued for Orsted’s Rhode Island and Equinor’s New York developments, the latter reaching a deal that lifted the administration’s ban and a federal judge reversing the order on Orsted’s project.
“To remain attractive to investors, Ørsted and companies like it must evaluate all options for offshore wind development and their overall US presence,” said Rystad Energy. “For European energy companies with less US exposure, reliance on China and other nations will only grow.”
In Rystad Energy’s view, the chances of creating an alternate, renewables-driven supply chain to compete with China are low. “The challenge is formidable,” it says. “Analysis of turbine platforms with IEC-type certification commonly used across Europe reveals that approximately 25% of the manufacturing sites producing key components for Western OEMs are in China.”
Rystad Energy vice president of supply chain research Andrea Scassola said, “In response, Europe’s wind industry has taken notice, and policymakers are mobilising to help reduce reliance on Chinese imports and beef up the domestic supply chain. Officials hope such measures will encourage manufacturing buildouts while keeping costs in check.”
