Drewry has forecasted a 1% decline in global container port volume, attributing the drop to U.S. trade policies and tariffs.
As reported by Reuters, this would mark the third fall in global container shipping demand since Drewry began recording data in 1979, following declines of 8.4% in 2009 during the global financial crisis and 0.9% in 2020 due to the COVID-19 pandemic. U.S. tariffs, including 10% duties on most countries’ goods and 145% on Chinese products, are particularly impactful. Drewry suggests that, with two-thirds of current tariffs likely to remain, U.S. imports from China could decline by as much as 40%.
However, the relocation of Chinese production to countries with lower tariffs could mitigate some of this loss, with U.S. imports from other nations potentially rising by 15%.
The ongoing trade tensions have caused significant disruptions, including retailers like RC Willey Home Furnishings halting orders from China in response to tariff hikes, Reuters notes. The company resumed sourcing from Vietnam after tariffs on the country were temporarily reduced, highlighting the volatility retailers face. This uncertainty has contributed to a decline in consumer confidence, with experts noting that trade policies could push the U.S. toward a recession, affecting global economic output.
As the trade conflict escalates, shipments to the U.S. from China have fallen, with some companies, including major shipping carriers like Hapag-Lloyd, reporting up to 30% of shipments being canceled. U.S. ports, especially Los Angeles, are bracing for a drop in imports, with expectations of a significant slowdown in containerized cargo volume in the second half of 2025, Reuters concludes.
