A weakening crude market may deliver global average VLSFO prices at as little as $/mt next year.
The US Energy Information Administration’s (EIA) latest short-term economic outlook forecasts an average Brent crude price of just $/bl in 2026, down from $/bl in the outlook published a month ago. On a quarterly basis the low point next year is projected at $/bl in Q2, before a rise up to $54/bl by Q4.
The organisation cited OPEC+ crude production increases as the key factor behind expectations of further price drops next year.
Over the past year, Ship & Bunker’s G20-VLSFO Index of prices at 20 leading bunkering locations has averaged at a premium of about 6.1% to Brent prices.
Taking that average premium, the EIA’s latest full-year 2026 forecast would put the G20-VLSFO Index at an average price of about $/mt next year, down by 31.5% from the average of about $/mt seen so far this year.
The last time the G20-VLSFO Index was as low as $/mt was in December 2020, when the COVID-19 pandemic was heavily suppressing global crude demand.
