Global merchandise trade outpaced expectations in the first half of 2025, driven by increased spending on AI-related products, a surge in North American imports ahead of tariff hikes, and strong trade among the rest of the world.
In response, WTO economists have raised the 2025 merchandise trade growth forecast to 2.4% (up from 0.9% in August).
However, the 2026 projection has been lowered to 0.5% (from 1.8%).
Global services export growth is expected to slow from 6.8% in 2024 to 4.6% in 2025 and 4.4% in 2026.
In the October 7 update of “Global Trade Outlook and Statistics”, WTO economists provide new analysis on the build-up in inventories in 2025
While artificial intelligence-related goods such as semiconductors, servers and telecommunications equipment lifted growth, they predict a cooling of the global economy as new tariffs set in.
Director-General Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala said: “Countries’ measured response to tariff changes in general, the growth potential of AI, as well as increased trade among the rest of the world, particularly among emerging economies, helped ease trade setbacks in 2025.”
She noted that South-South trade had grown 8% year-on-year, in value terms, in the first half of 2025, compared to 6% for world trade overall. South-South trade, involving partners other than China, is growing even faster, up around 9%.
“Trade resilience in 2025 is thanks in no small part to the stability provided by the rules-based multilateral trading system,” she said. “Yet complacency is not an option. Today’s disruptions to the global trade system are a call to action for nations to reimagine trade and together lay a stronger foundation that delivers greater prosperity for people everywhere,” DG Okonjo-Iweala said.
View the discussion thread.
The Durban High Court has dismissed a bid by APM Terminals BV to reverse the awarding of an R11.1bn contract to ICTSI.
Vessel congestion has been reduced due to improved operational efficiencies, says the minister.
Analysts note that in several markets, spot prices have now fallen below contract rates.
Calls for stronger enforcement and greater accountability in South Africa’s dangerous goods sector are mounting.
The law requires importers of legumes and several other products to prove they did not cause deforestation.
The canal extended the operating hours of its Transit Reservation Office from October 5.
The association plans to host a special event to highlight the port’s latest operational turnaround.
The World Bank report highlights persistent challenges in the labour market.
“The commitment to care from our industry is simply outstanding.” – Hayley van Rooyen.
The operations centre has urged vessels to exercise heightened caution while small boats face port restrictions.
Employers face challenges attracting and retaining skilled warehousing staff.
Renewable energy advances present an opportunity to reindustrialise and grow jobs.
