President Trump has threatened that beginning November 1, 2025, the U.S. will impose an additional 100% tariff on goods imported from China, on top of existing tariffs, in retaliation for China expanding its rare earth element export controls, adding five new elements to the list..
The announcement obviously did more than shake the markets, it naturally set off a wave of confusion, speculation, and contingency planning across the world’s shipping routes..
For customers with containers already in transit from China to the United States, the question is painfully simple yet impossible to answer right now: “What happens if the new tariffs come into effect while those containers are still on the water..??”
Although there are lots of unknowns associated with this threat, the truth is simple.. If it becomes official, someone is going to pay..
Not because of politics or policy, but because that is what the sales contract and chosen Incoterms rules dictate.. No debate, no workaround, no appeal.. It is written in black and white..
Thousands of containers are already on the water.. Bills of lading issued, payments made, deliveries planned..
If the threat becomes official, its implementation date and scope will be critical..
Every importer, freight forwarder, and manufacturer is talking about “contingency planning”, running scenarios, calculating margins, checking contracts, and calling their brokers to ask the same question: “What if..??”
But let us be honest.. In this case, the math is already done in your sales contract.. Once the tariff comes into place, the liability is fixed..
Trade has no sympathy for “what might” or “what if”, only for what is signed.. Governments can flip trade policy overnight.. There is no buffer, no clause to soften the blow.. The only question is who absorbs it..
For containers already at sea, no one knows how this will play out until the official notice drops..
Every shipment is now a “floating uncertainty” representing a coin toss between business as usual and a 100% shock to landed cost..
Image : Tenor
Trade runs on contracts, not wishful thinking.. When governments move the goalposts, there are only two outcomes: you pay, or your counterparty does..
So check your contracts, know your Incoterms, and face the facts.. In global trade, someone always pays, and sometimes, it might be YOU..
