The spot freight rate index in the container shipping market continues to decline, which at least indicates that this year’s “peak season” on the U.S. route has come and gone. Meanwhile, as the “reciprocal tariffs” are largely settled, signaling that the “turbulence” has subsided, does this mean the European route will see a return to its traditional “peak season”…
Spot freight rates continue to fall
Specifically, as of August 8, the Shanghai Containerized Freight Index (SCFI) stood at 1,489.68 points, down 3.9% from the previous period.
On the European route, the supply-demand balance in the shipping market remains weak, and freight rates continue to decline. On August 8, the spot market rate (including ocean freight and surcharges) from Shanghai to European base ports was $1,961/TEU, down 4.4% from the previous period. The Mediterranean route followed a similar trend, with spot booking prices dipping slightly. The market rate from Shanghai to Mediterranean base ports was $2,318/TEU, down 0.6% from the previous period.
On the North American route, shipping demand lacks further growth momentum, and market rates continue to adjust. On August 8, the Shanghai-U.S. West Coast rate fell 9.8% to $1,823/FEU, while the Shanghai-U.S. East Coast rate dropped 10.7% week-on-week to $2,792/FEU.
Meanwhile, as of August 7, the Drewry World Container Index (WCI) declined 3% week-on-week to approximately $2,424/FEU.
Drewry noted that the WCI has stabilized after a period of volatility. Following the announcement of U.S. tariff hikes in April, the market experienced sharp fluctuations, with freight rates surging significantly from May to early June before plummeting rapidly. The decline slowed noticeably after mid-July.
Among routes originating from China, Shanghai-Rotterdam remained stable at $3,276/FEU, while Shanghai-Genoa fell 4% to $3,227/FEU. Meanwhile, Shanghai-New York dropped 7% week-on-week to $3,826/FEU, and Shanghai-Los Angeles declined 4% to $2,534/FEU.
Drewry stated that with the pre-tariff rush shipment wave now over, spot freight rate volatility is expected to weaken in the coming week. At the same time, the supply-demand balance may weaken again in the second half of the year, leading to another drop in spot rates.
Maersk: Strong container demand—except in the U.S….
Maersk forecasts global container market volume growth of 2% to 4%, up from its previous estimate of -1% to 4%, indicating more resilient demand in global markets (excluding North America).
Meanwhile, Maersk CEO Vincent Clerc noted during the Q2 earnings call that a new driver of container demand has emerged, generating significant additional demand.
He pointed out, “We are now entering a different phase of development, one that has accelerated since 2023—China’s approach to increasing its global market share is no longer about producing goods for the West but about its domestic companies going global.”
He added, “This is the current reality. I believe the landscape of global trade is changing.”
“Peak season” came and went
Overall, freight forwarders largely share the same view on this year’s “peak season.” Due to U.S. tariffs, space availability has been good so far, with both cargo volumes and freight rates declining, with no signs of a turnaround.
Meanwhile, a shipping analyst also stated, “I think the peak season is over, and liner companies now face the challenge of maintaining stable freight rates for as long as possible. Q3 is largely set, and Maersk has described Q4 as a ‘wildcard,’ though hopes remain for a ‘decent’ performance.”
Xeneta Chief Analyst Peter Sand noted that liner companies have taken action to curb the “spot freight rate plunge” on the U.S. route by canceling sailings (now nearly double mid-June levels) and implementing strong capacity management.
He added, “In August, the steep decline in spot rates has slowed, so enhanced capacity management has achieved some success for liner companies—but it’s limited and insufficient to halt the downward trend in the coming months.”
In short, some are optimistic, others pessimistic… It’s very much like viewing a half-full glass. Pessimists see overcapacity… Optimists, meanwhile, anticipate a “peak season” with rising Christmas cargo volumes…
