Geopolitical uncertainties continue to significantly influence the maritime transport market. If the situation in the Red Sea has been a determining factor contributing to the solid performance of the container shipping market in 2024, the continuous changes in tariff policies and trade disputes have undoubtedly played a decisive role in shaping market trends in the first half of 2025.
While presenting its mid-year financial results, Orient Overseas (International) Ltd (OOIL), the company that is part of the Chinese shipping group COSCO Shipping, emphasized that “the frequent changes in tariff policies have disrupted long-term planning, raising concerns among customers and undermining the confidence of both businesses and consumers.”
It is no coincidence that freight rates in trans-Pacific services have generally decreased since the beginning of the year. While it is true that “the 90-day tariff suspension between China and the United States led to a rapid recovery of freight rates from the lows of early May,” it is equally true that “the rebound proved to be temporary, with rates subsequently falling again.”
The rapid influx of capacity and the arrival of new competitors in key trades have ended up altering the market balance on the supply side, while political uncertainties have fueled market concerns. “As a result, many customers seem to have started abandoning their precautionary strategy of anticipating deliveries from the beginning of this year to adopt a more cautious and wait-and-see approach,” is the analysis provided by OOIL.
Despite the overall challenges the market is facing, rate increases on other routes have held up relatively well during this round of tariff changes. This is a resilience that OOIL believes can be attributed to supply chain restructuring, different economic conditions in various regions, seasonality, or the port congestion issues reported by many European ports. “Furthermore – observes the Chinese group – the full impact of the factors affecting trans-Pacific routes may not yet have materialized. Regardless of the cause, the different performances in different markets therefore allow carriers to seize some opportunities.”
OOCL’s total loads for the first half of 2025 increased by 7%, and total liner revenues increased by 4% on an annual basis. Despite only a single-digit improvement, the year-on-year performance represents the best in the post-pandemic period in terms of both loads and revenues.
In the first half of 2025, OOCL’s average bunker price was approximately 541 US dollars per ton, down 8% from the 589 US dollars per ton in the same period of 2024. This decline contributed to a reduction in total bunker costs.
However, the consumption of fuel oil and diesel increased by 2% in the first half of 2025 compared to the same period in 2024, largely due to the expansion of the fleet’s operational capacity.
“The trends of the first half of the year remind us that the maritime sector is highly dynamic and that anything is possible” is the company’s final comment, which also notes how the ongoing political uncertainties, developments in the Red Sea, the continuous delivery of new ships, changes in the global economy, and the gradual tightening of environmental regulations, risk having a profound impact on the overall market development.
The additional port taxes imposed by the United States on Chinese carriers will also have a relatively significant impact on the Group. “On the other hand, with the evolution of global trade models towards greater regionalization, market divergences or delayed or deferred responses due to extended or restructured supply chains could occur, all factors that could potentially create opportunities for shipping companies to refine their strategies in segmented markets”.
