On the occasion of the end of the summer period, the shipbroker Xclusiv proceeds with an overview of the dry bulk market, focusing on the counter-trends recorded in the individual freight markets of bulk carriers during the period June-August. After all, seasonal patterns often constitute a reliable “barometer” of the underlying demand.
According to a recent report by Xclusiv, since 2023 and onwards, large and small bulk carriers have been charting “opposite lives” during the third quarter of the year: Capesizes show high volatility, as do Panamaxes, while geared vessels (Supramaxes and Handysizes) demonstrate resilience and stability.
Capesizes
In the Capesize market, the summer period started with the C5TC at $/day in June. In July, the market peaked, with the C5TC touching $/day at the end of the month, before retreating to $/day by the end of August.
Panamaxes
Panamaxes started in June 2025 with the P5TC at $/day and recorded an upward trajectory throughout the summer, closing August at $/day.
Supramaxes – Handysizes
Supramaxes and Handysizes have shown impressive resilience during the third quarter in recent years. This trend was confirmed in the summer of 2025 as well. The S11TC increased from $/day in early June to $/day by the end of August. A similar trajectory was followed by Handysizes, with the HS7TC increasing from $/day in early June to $/day by the end of August.
The fluctuations in the freight rates of bulk carriers reflect the ups and downs of the Chinese coal market. In particular, Chinese coal production increased by 5.4% on an annual basis in the first half of 2025, slowing down the demand for imports. However, heavy rainfall and government crackdowns hit Chinese mining operations in July, reopening the “window” of arbitrage for seaborne coal shipments. This development revived Chinese demand, just as the earnings of geared bulk carriers were stabilizing.
Source: [xclusiv] S&P Report 1st September 2025
