The daily charter rates for VLCCs rose steadily in August and remained very strong after surging last week, with some fixtures even breaking six figures. Analysts believe that confidence in the VLCC market continues to strengthen, and there will be greater upside potential in the fourth quarter.
Specifically, data from the Baltic Exchange shows that the VLCC average daily rate increased by $13,417 last Friday, reaching $71,863, with some fixtures even exceeding $100,000. Since the beginning of September, the VLCC average daily rate has accumulated an increase of 59%.
Shipbroker Poten & Partners expressed optimism about the market outlook for the fourth quarter. The end of the hottest months in the Middle East means an increase in export volumes. OPEC+’s potential further increase in oil production starting from October is also a driving factor. At the same time, increasingly tightening sanctions could be another positive factor.
Market confidence in the VLCC market continues to strengthen. Analysts believe that as VLCC daily rates approach six figures, there will be greater upside potential in the fourth quarter. Analysts expect that the growing crude oil exports from the Middle East will support rate increases before the end of the year.
BRS stated, “This is the first time this year that freight rates have broken through the W80 level and stayed above the W80 level for an extended period, which is clearly supported by fundamentals.”
Arctic Securities analyst Kristoffer Barth Skeie pointed out, “Over the past two months, rates have been well above the five-year average, and the gap is rapidly widening. Historical data indicates that rates tend to rise in the fourth quarter, with an average increase of about 130% from September to December.”
Jefferies analyst Omar Nokta raised his forecasts for VLCC rates in 2025-2026. He increased his forecast for eco-type VLCC daily rates in 2026 and 2027 from the previous $65,000 per day to $67,500 per day. He expects the full-year average daily rate for 2025 to be around $45,000.
Omar Nokta is convinced that the tanker market “is entering the second phase of the market upcycle.”
He noted, “From 2022 to 2024, medium crude tankers and product tankers achieved record-high earnings, while VLCCs lagged due to OPEC+ production cuts. As OPEC+ is now increasing production, VLCCs will benefit, and all tanker segments should achieve strong earnings.”
Omar Nokta emphasized that VLCCs “will lead the tanker market rally,” and “a significant rise in VLCCs will boost earnings for all tankers.”
