Peak expected in 2027, at levels comparable to the 2016 price wars
Genoa – According to Sea-Intelligence projections, the global container shipping market is heading towards a phase of overcapacity with a peak expected in 2027, at levels comparable to the 2016 price wars. The report hypothesizes that the Red Sea crisis will be resolved by mid-2026, freeing up significant market capacity. However, the forecasts remain subject to uncertainties: the estimate depends on an increase in ship demolition starting in 2026, with 13% of the global fleet over 20 years old expected to be retired from service. Sea-Intelligence also reports downside risks: a prolonged crisis in the Red Sea would continue to absorb capacity, while the ongoing US trade war could reduce demand.
