A period of “heightened tensions” appears the most likely scenario as the US port fee deadline approaches and China signals retaliation, with shipping markets already feeling the effects
From 14 October, United States Trade Representative (USTR) actions will apply to Chinese-built, owned or operated vessels calling at US ports. In response, state-run Xinhua News Agency reported that Beijing will introduce countermeasures if “discriminatory restrictions” are imposed by any country. These could include special fees on vessels from those countries when berthing in China.
With both sides entrenched, shipping analysts describe a “tense atmosphere.”
“The key question is whether this will lead to real escalation or if a compromise will be sought,” Intermodal head of research Yiannis Parganas told Riviera.
Mr Parganas expects an initial exchange of “symbolic blows” – targeted measures by Beijing to demonstrate resolve without broadly blocking access to Chinese ports.
“A full confrontation would also harm its own economy, especially when exports are already under pressure,” he said, noting China’s past focus on politically sensitive imports such as US soya beans.
Washington, he added, is more likely to use tariffs as leverage than to impose across-the-board hikes. “A partial or targeted escalation seems more probable, keeping the negotiating card alive without blowing up bilateral trade,” he explained.
For now, Mr Parganas sees the likeliest path as a period of harsh rhetoric and limited countermeasures, with the door left open for talks before a second milestone in November. “At that point, it will become clearer whether we are heading into a genuine trade war or toward compromise.”
Payment details
In its latest update ahead of the implementation of port fees, the US Customs and Border Protection (CBP) announced that vessels without proof of payment will be subject to denial of loading or unloading operations, or have clearance withheld, until payment can be verified. CBP recommends initiating payment at least three business days prior to a vessel’s arrival.
“The burden for determining if a vessel owes the fee lies with the operator, not CBP,” the notice adds.
The agency has also outlined the new fees applicable to vessels owned, operated, or built in China, as well as to all foreign-built vehicle carrier vessels.
Under Annex 1, a fee of US$50 per net tonne applies to arriving vessels owned or operated by a Chinese entity. Annex 2 establishes the higher of US$18 per net tonne or US$120 per discharged container for arriving vessels built in China. Under Annex 3, a fee of US$14 per net tonne applies to arriving vessels classified as vehicle carriers or /roll-off vessels.
All three fee structures take effect on 14 October 2025.
Notably, LNG carriers are exempt from the fees outlined in Annexes I, II, and III.
CBP further emphasised that all payments must be made directly through the US Department of the Treasury’s secure Pay.gov website and not at the port of entry.
