The contraction in global container shipping, a leading indicator of world trade, has accelerated. Shipowners are canceling more voyages than even during the peak pandemic period to slow the pace of the decline in freight rates. The sharp drop in freight rates threatens shipowners’ 2026 contracts while creating an opportunity for exporters.
The Drewry World Container Index (WCI), which had entered a contraction trend due to the turbulence created in trade by US President Donald Trump, experienced a psychological break at the end of September when it fell below $2,000. In line with expectations, the decline in the index accelerated this week, falling to $1,650 per 40-foot container. Thus, the index retreated to its lowest level since January 2024. The decline in freight rates was not only on the US-China route but also on the Far East-Europe line at similar rates.
Behind the decline is a sharp decrease in demand for maritime transport following the new customs tariffs that US President Trump imposed on trade partners at the beginning of this year. The uninterrupted decline in imports for five months and exports for nine months in US-China trade has deeply affected the global freight market. Since the beginning of the year, US imports from China have decreased by 27 percent compared to the previous year, while exports have declined by 42 percent.
Analysts note that shipowners are trying to support prices by manipulating capacity, the only element they can still control. Faced with weak demand, shipowners have reintroduced a “blank sailing” policy with a strategy similar to that during the pandemic period. According to Project44’s data, in October alone, 67 voyages from China to the US and 71 voyages in the opposite direction were canceled. This even exceeded the record levels seen during the peak of the pandemic.
The goal is not crisis management, but to maintain price stability
Bart De Muynck, chief analyst at the consulting firm Better Supply Chains, said, “Shipowners are canceling voyages at an intensity not seen since the early days of the pandemic. But this time, the goal is not crisis management; it is to maintain price stability in a market disrupted by tariffs.” According to experts, political and economic uncertainties on the US-China trade route will be decisive in the course of freight rates.
An opportunity for exporters in 2026 contracts
Drewry experts state that as we enter the 2026 contract season, larger rate declines are imminent. This sharp drop in freight rates means risk for shipowners but opportunity for exporters. According to Drewry’s forecasts, if the price curve continues in this way, exporters will be able to make more advantageous maritime transport contracts for 2026. The investment bank Jefferies also announced that freight rates have fallen below the cost level of leading carriers for the first time since the end of 2023. The bank highlighted that weak spot prices are threatening 2026 contract negotiations.
Source: / Aysel Yücel
