Huatai Securities research report points out that in the short term, shipping companies may redeploy global vessel deployment and port calls to reduce related costs, which will cause supply chain disruptions and push up freight rates. From a medium to long-term perspective, analysis based on the nationality distribution of shipping companies shows that in the game between China and the US, the Chinese shipping industry faces a higher levy than the US side. After analyzing trade flows, we believe that Chinese-flagged /bulk shipping companies are relatively beneficiaries, while container shipping is relatively disadvantaged.
Core Views
China takes countermeasures, imposing special port fees on US vessels
On October 10, the Ministry of Transport issued an announcement regarding countermeasures against the USTR’s imposition of additional port service fees on Chinese companies and Chinese-built vessels. The fee standards are basically consistent with the US policy (see Charts 1, 2). The mutual imposition of port fees between China and the US will take effect from October 14, 2025. Differentiated by trade flow, container shipping is more affected by US port fees, while /bulk shipping is more affected by Chinese port fees. In the short term, we believe shipping companies may redeploy global vessel deployment and port calls to reduce related costs, which will cause supply chain disruptions and push up freight rates. From a medium to long-term perspective, based on the nationality distribution of shipping companies, /US-flagged capacity accounts for /4% of the global total; based on the shipbuilding country distribution, /US-built capacity accounts for /4% of the global total (Clarksons data, as of September ’25). Therefore, in the game between China and the US, the Chinese shipping industry faces a higher levy than the US side.
Container Shipping: Short-term price hikes may ease cost pressure; Medium to long-term oversupply pressures profits
In the short term, considering the current low freight rates on US routes and pressure on industry profits, we believe shipping companies may collectively raise prices to pass this port fee on to customers to alleviate short-term cost pressure. In the medium to long term, uncertainties remain regarding Sino-US trade friction and demand. Increased vessel supply in 2026 + potential resumption of Red Sea transit pose significant downside risks for the industry. According to Clarksons data, taking the 14,000 TEU container ship type as an example, the new port fee for Chinese-flagged /Chinese-built container ships is approximately $3.2 /$1.1 million, corresponding to a proportion of /9% of the current transportation cost (based on the average September freight rate for the US West Coast route of $1,/FEU). Due to different fee standards, the cost impact on Chinese-flagged companies is higher than on overseas peers.
/Bulk: Industry upturn, port fees expected to be passed to customers, pushing up freight rates
In the short term, /bulk shipping is in a seasonal peak in Q4, with industry sentiment improving. We believe the new port fees will be passed on to customers through surcharges or freight rate increases. Simultaneously, adjustments such as vessel redeployment may cause short-term supply chain disruptions, further significantly pushing up freight rates. According to Clarksons data: 1) The new port fee per voyage for a VLCC tanker is approximately $5.2 million, corresponding to 73% of the current transportation cost (based on the September average BDTI VLCC rate of $71,/day); 2) The new port fee per voyage for a Capesize bulk carrier is approximately $3 million, corresponding to 162% of the current transportation cost (based on the September average Capesize rate of $26,/day). In the medium to long term, as port fees account for a significant proportion of current industry transportation costs, we believe that if port fees continue to be levied, they will systematically raise the global freight rate benchmark for /bulk shipping.
Investment Advice: Chinese-flagged /bulk companies relatively benefit, container shipping relatively disadvantaged
Due to differences in trade flows, Chinese-flagged /bulk shipping companies have a smaller proportion of calls to US ports and are relatively beneficiaries; Chinese-flagged container shipping companies have a large proportion of calls to US ports, face higher levies than /bulk and overseas peers, and are relatively disadvantaged. Overseas, foreign-flagged container shipping companies have a large proportion of calls to US ports, but the levied amount is lower than for Chinese-flagged companies, making them relatively beneficiaries; US-flagged /bulk shipping companies have a large proportion of calls to Chinese ports and are relatively disadvantaged.
