At the end of October, data on US container throughput was successively released, showing that US container imports continued to decline year-on-year in September.
Data from supply chain technology and data provider Descartes shows that, affected by the Trump administration’s global tariff policies, US containerized goods imports in September fell by 8.4% year-on-year to 2.308 million twenty-foot equivalent units (TEUs). This decline represents the largest monthly drop in recent years.
Data from the important industry report, the “McCown Report on Top 10 US Ports,” also shows that in September, import container throughput at the top 10 US ports decreased by 6.6% year-on-year, a trend completely opposite to the previous months. The report’s author, industry analyst John McCown, predicts that a “sustained and more significant” downward trend will continue until 2026.
Descartes attributed the September import decline to the dual impact of weak seasonal demand and tariff-related caution.
Trade experts and shipping industry professionals interviewed by Yicai also believe that turmoil caused by tariff factors and weak domestic demand in the US constitute the main reasons for the current sluggish throughput at US ports.
Yan Guangpu, an anti-dumping financial expert at Daoyue Legal Consulting, told Yicai that based on feedback from a wide range of foreign traders, besides tariff factors, inflation has indeed led to a decline in domestic US demand. In short, “US consumption capacity is declining.”
Tariff factors led to a rush to ports in the previous two months
Taking the Port of Oakland, the third-largest container port on the US West Coast, as an example, its import empty containers fell 12.8% year-on-year in September, and export laden containers fell 3.5%.
The National Retail Federation (NRF) predicts that, affected by new tariffs, import cargo volume at major US ports in 2025 will decrease by 5.6% compared to 2024. The federation also expects that since most holiday goods were delivered earlier than in previous years and tariffs are persistently higher than in previous years, monthly import cargo volume at major US container ports for the remainder of this year will be below 2 million TEUs.
“The peak sales season this year has already passed, mainly because retailers imported large quantities of goods in advance before the so-called ‘reciprocal tariffs’ took effect,” said Jonathan Gold, Vice President for Supply Chain and Customs Policy at the NRF.
More industry tariffs will take effect in the future. The NRF cited examples, including a 25% tariff on all upholstered furniture (regardless of origin), and tariffs at the same rate on cabinets and vanities, which are scheduled to increase next January, among others.
“The ongoing volatility in US tariff policy is creating tremendous economic uncertainty,” said Ben Hackett, founder of Hackett Associates, who assisted the NRF in preparing the report.
The Drewry East-West contract rate index, which reflects market demand, fell 3% in the 12 months to September, marking the first year-on-year decline since July 2024. This index averages the contract rates paid by over one hundred multinational shippers, including retailers like Walmart, on 17 major sea routes.
A senior professional long engaged in maritime logistics on the US West Coast told Yicai that previously, the time window from the announcement to the implementation of some tariff policies was very short. Maritime /customs /shippers had to constantly refresh the US Customs website “until sparks flew,” and the hasty changes caused significant difficulties for all parties regarding quotes, etc. Therefore, the overall sentiment among shippers and importers is now quite cautious.
He also told the reporter that many small and medium-sized retailers in the US are troubled by tariff policies, with a large amount of cash flow tied up in paying tariffs, and financial difficulties are a real problem. In terms of data, much of the overall cargo volume maintained by US imports is contributed by large retailers, but small and medium-sized importers are very sensitive to tariff policies.
Data from the McCown Report also shows that the decline in container imports at the top 10 US ports in September occurred after a slight 0.2% increase in August and a 3.2% increase in July.
McCown stated that the growth in these two periods “was primarily driven by front-loading shipments to get goods into the US ahead of new tariff effective dates.” Prior to these temporary increases, throughput at these top 10 ports fell by 8.3% and 6.6% in June and May, respectively.
In fact, the revised so-called “reciprocal tariffs” that took effect on August 7 included a key exemption for goods already in transit, which temporarily mitigated the impact.
McCown explained: “If the container was loaded on the vessel at the last foreign port before August 7th and entered the US before October 5th, the new tariffs did not apply.” This grace period meant that most cargo arriving in August and some in September, particularly on long-haul routes from Asia to the US East Coast, avoided the new tariffs.
McCown further warned in the report, “If the current tariff policy remains unchanged without any adjustments, US import container throughput will experience sustained and more significant year-on-year declines for a long period next year.”
Expecting further significant declines
In 2024, total US inbound freight volume increased by 15.2% compared to 2023. However, as mentioned above, the NRF expects total inbound container volume in 2025 to decrease compared to 2024. The association predicts that cargo volume in the last four months of 2025 will be 15.7% lower than the same period in 2024.
McCown considers this forecast reasonable, stating, “In the coming months, we will quickly see sustained double-digit percentage declines in cargo volume at most US ports. Furthermore, the sharp drop in freight volume will not end at the close of 2025 and will continue into 2026.”
McCown also observed that the global supply chain is adjusting faster than expected. He said, “If a manufacturing base was previously considered unattractive because it was 10% more expensive, it now becomes attractive if it saves 25% in tariffs.”
McCown stated that manufacturers in countries facing high US tariffs “may now find other markets without tariffs relatively more attractive.”
This shift is already evident in global data. Although US container throughput has declined, global container throughput hit record highs for two consecutive months through August.
The McCown Report shows that container exports from the Far East in August increased by 4.6% year-on-year, while “container imports to Africa, the Middle /India, and Europe all showed substantial growth and an upward trend, whereas US container throughput remained sluggish or even declined.”
Meanwhile, export volumes to the US from various places are showing a slowing trend. Data from Descartes shows that imports from places like South Korea, Germany, and Italy also declined year-on-year in September. At the same time, some Southeast Asian and South Asian countries gained market share; for instance, imports from Indonesia, Thailand, Vietnam, and India all increased. However, sequential data indicates an almost across-the-board slowdown in Asian trade momentum.
Yan Guangpu told Yicai that if the US maintained a strong sales and consumption trend, even re-export trade could be profitable. For example, in previous years when the US economic situation was relatively good, traders employing similar strategies had quite good profit levels. But this year is different from the past. Coupled with the relatively obvious shift towards consumption downgrading in the US, and the overall trade ecosystem now including cross-border e-commerce, the situation has become more complex.
Currently, the US faces persistently high inflation levels and a manufacturing PMI that has contracted for five consecutive months. S&P Global data shows that the US composite PMI in September hit its lowest level since February this year. Consumers are curbing spending under the pressure of high prices and borrowing costs, directly dragging down container shipping demand from Asia.
On October 30, Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell stated that the baseline expectation is that additional tariffs will bring inflation, potentially raising the inflation rate by another 0.2, 0.3, or 0.4 percentage points, but it should be a one-time effect. He also said it would take some time for the tariffs to be passed through to consumers.
According to estimates from the Yale Budget Lab, all tariffs introduced by the Trump administration for 2025, as of October, will cause the price level to rise by 1.7% in the short term, equivalent to an average loss of $2,400 per US household income in 2025.
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