Global ocean freight rates have dropped to their lowest point in almost two years, marking another quarter dominated by oversupply, shifting trade patterns and fragile demand.
That is the picture drawn by Transport Intelligence’s latest Ocean Freight Rate Tracker (Q4 2025), which reports a steep slide across major east–west trades and a market struggling to find a new equilibrium.
Ti’s Global Ocean Freight Rate Index shows that by October 2025, headhaul rates had fallen to 106.1, while backhaul rates reached 82; both at their weakest level since 2023. According to the report, headhaul rates dropped 13.9% month-on-month and over 51% year-on-year.
These declines are not merely gradual but characterised by sudden swings. The report points out that rates on some lanes fell by nearly a quarter within a single month earlier in the period, underscoring how unstable the market has become.
The steepest correction is visible on the Asia–Europe routes:
Meanwhile, the Transpacific headhaul trade saw the largest overall fall, with October headhaul spot rates down 65.5% year-on-year after earlier front-loading pushed a temporary spike in May and June. Even the Transatlantic, typically steadier, has not escaped pressure: exports from Europe to the US East Coast were down 8.6% year-on-year in August.
Despite geopolitical tension and a challenging macroeconomic backdrop, global container volumes grew 4.8% quarter-on-quarter. But the year-on-year comparison tells a different story: global throughput is still 4.1% lower than in Q3 2024.
The regional picture explains why:
This imbalance means that demand is simply not strong enough in Europe and parts of Asia to absorb the amount of capacity carriers have brought into the market.
According to the report, the global container fleet continues to expand at speed.
By October 2025, weekly global capacity approached 5 million TEU, up 2.7% year-on-year, with Q3 alone up 3.4% versus Q2.
Behind this growth is a wave of newly delivered megaships and a large orderbook:
With demolition virtually absent and inactive fleet levels low, carriers have had no option but to deploy these ships, strengthening the oversupply that continues to push rates down across all major east–west lanes.
The situation may be further amplified by the resumption of Suez Canal routings, which increase effective capacity even more.
Bunker prices fell sharply across all regions in Q3 and October, global average prices down 15.9% year-on-year, with the Americas seeing the steepest drop at 20.8%.
This decline is driven by:
Yet, cheaper fuel alone cannot counteract the much bigger downward force of excess capacity.
Ti’s sentiment index paints a market that is uncertain, fragmented, and sensitive to regional dynamics.
Respondents expect:
While 53.1% of respondents globally expect some form of increase, the expectations are modest and highly dependent on lane-specific conditions.
The report concludes that capacity growth remains the dominant force shaping Q4 2025. Fleet growth of around 9% per year continues to outpace demand growth of 2–3%. With the peak season largely behind the industry, carriers face a soft market heading into the end of the year.
Ti expects:
Whether these carrier-led measures will actually succeed remains unclear. As Ti notes, the sheer scale of new capacity entering the market may simply be too large for operational adjustments to counterbalance.
