Singapore, 13 May (Argus) — The Indian cement industry’s imports of fuel-grade petroleum coke may slip sharply to around 6mn t in the 2026 calendar year because producers continue to switch to competitive thermal coal, a senior cement industry executive said at the Argus India Commodities Day event in Mumbai.
Cement makers in India, the world’s second-largest cement market, imported 10.67mn t of coke from origins including the US and Saudi Arabia in 2025, down slightly from 10.83mn t a year earlier, according to data from shipbroker Interocean. But imports were only at 707,000t during January-March, down sharply from 2.47mn t in the year earlier.
“I don’t think cement makers’ coke imports can cross 6mn t this year. Receipts were sharply down in the first quarter, and most cement plants have been buying imported and domestic thermal coal to replace coke because coke prices have been at a significant premium to coal after the US-Iran war started,” a senior industry procurement executive said last week.
India imported 2.75mn t of US thermal coal, primarily the high-calorific value (CV) NAR 6,900 /kg Northern Appalachian (NAPP) coal, in the quarter ended 31 March, up by 32pc from a year earlier, data from trade analytics platform Kpler show. Cement makers prefer NAPP coal as a replacement to coke when their prices are competitive.
NAPP coal is being offered in the mid-$/t cfr on India’s west coast, compared with offers of about $/t for the NAR 7,500 /kg US high-sulphur coke. But the low import duty of 2.75pc on NAPP coal against an import tax on 11pc on coke largely offsets the CV difference between the two fuels, making this coal a preferred fuel at current prices.
Indian cement makers have significantly cut coke share in their kiln fuel mix during January-March because coal prices were more competitive. This trend is likely to be more pronounced in the current quarter. India’s largest cement producer, Ultratech, cut coke share in its fuel mix to 41pc during January-March, down from 54pc in the corresponding quarter of 2025 while raising coal use, the Bombay Stock Exchange-listed firm said last month.
Fellow cement maker Nuvoco Vistas reduced coke use to 37pc in January-March from 52pc in the same quarter last year.
Coke supplies from Middle East countries, the second-largest source after the US, have been affected due to the war, also reducing overall supplies. Coke supplies and loading from the 460,000 b/d Satorp refinery in Saudi Arabia’s Jubail, jointly operated by state-controlled Saudi Aramco and TotalEnergies, have stopped since March because vessels can only reach the refinery on the Mideast Gulf coast by traveling through the strait of Hormuz. Many vessel owners are reluctant to transit though the strait because Iran has been attacking vessels there.
Meanwhile, the Yasref refinery — a joint venture between Aramco and Sinopec — in Yanbu, Saudi Arabia, continues to load but refinery runs were lower, leading to a drop in coke output, maket participants said.
In addition to raising imported coal use, Indian cement makers are also securing more domestic coal to replace coke since a weaker rupee has added to overall delivered costs of imported coke and coal.
The Indian rupee averaged at around 90.76 rupee to the dollar in February, weakening to Rs92.90 in March and further to Rs93.40 in April. It has slipped further to Rs94.91 so far in May, implying additional cost in rupee terms.
But domestic coal is priced in rupees, shielding buyers from foreign exchange swings. Cement makers received 3.53mn t of domestic coal over January-April, up by 10pc from the year earlier, according to coal ministry data.
“I won’t be surprised if total coke imports by cement plants falls by 50pc in 2026,” a procurement executive at a second cement maker said. “We typically buy 600,000t of coke every year, but we have only booked 125,000t so far this year.”
But cement makers would also be quick to switch back to coke once prices become competitive compared with coal. “The shift is an emergency response to the crisis, not a structural change,” said a third cement maker. “Domestic coal has come into picture due to its wide gap with seaborne fuel, but it has quality issues.”
By Ajay Modi
