Xinhua News Agency, Paris, May 13 (Reporter Cui Kexin) The International Energy Agency released its latest monthly oil report on the 13th, stating that the disruption of the Strait of Hormuz has led to a continuous expansion of oil supply losses, depleting global oil inventories at a record pace. With the peak summer demand approaching, international oil prices may experience further fluctuations.
The report stated that due to ongoing restrictions on tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, cumulative supply losses from Gulf oil-producing countries have exceeded 1 billion barrels, and oil production capacity currently forced to shut down exceeds 14 million barrels per day, constituting an unprecedented supply shock.
At the same time, crude oil from commercial inventories and government strategic reserves of consuming countries is flowing into the market to partially offset supply gaps. In March and April, global observable oil inventories, including crude oil at sea, decreased by 250 million barrels, equivalent to a daily reduction of 4 million barrels.
The report noted that the petrochemical industry is currently the most severely impacted, with its raw material supply becoming increasingly tight. Aviation activity also remains far below normal levels, alleviating pressure on jet fuel prices to some extent. Previously, due to disruptions in Middle Eastern exports, jet fuel prices once surged nearly twofold. Price increases, deteriorating economic conditions, and fuel-saving measures will further curb global oil consumption.
The International Energy Agency expects that in the second quarter of this year, global oil demand will decrease by an average of 2.45 million barrels per day year-on-year; for the full year, global oil demand will decline by an average of 420,000 barrels per day year-on-year, to 104 million barrels per day, which is 1.3 million barrels per day lower than the forecast made before the outbreak of the Middle East conflict.
The report believes that if the United States and Iran can reach an agreement to end the war and allow oil transportation through the Strait of Hormuz to gradually resume starting from the third quarter of this year, global oil demand may return to a growth trajectory before the end of the year, but the pace of supply recovery is expected to be slower. Therefore, the oil market is expected to remain in a supply shortage until the fourth quarter of this year. Given that global oil inventories have been declining at a record pace, oil prices may continue to fluctuate before the peak summer demand arrives.
