Presentata l’analisi congiunturale del settore riferita ai dati 2025 e alle previsioni per l’anno in corso, pesantemente condizionate dall’instabilità nell’area del Golfo
Today logistics is a multi-speed sector, where the good performance of 2025 must now contend with an unprecedented geopolitical shock caused by the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz. The crisis is redrawing global flows and pushing air freight rates up by 38% in a few weeks, overturning the fragile balances achieved last year.
This is what emerges from the cyclical analysis promoted by Confetra on the logistics, transport and shipping sector, referring to 2025 data and 2026 forecasts, the latter heavily conditioned by instability in the Gulf area. The report highlights that despite the resilience shown in 2025, the picture changed drastically at the end of February 2026. Approximately 20% of global oil flows transited through the Strait of Hormuz; today volumes have collapsed by 94%, going from 84 ships to just 7 units per day, with volumes plummeting from 3.4 million tonnes to just 201 thousand units.
“The data collected for 2025 gave back the image of a sector capable of absorbing shocks – declared Carlo De Ruvo, president of Confetra – however, the current supply disruption, defined by the International Energy Agency as the largest in history, is severely testing the system. If in 2025 maritime transport grew by 4.4%, today operators must face container freight rates increased by 20% and a dry bulk transport index that marks an increase well above 100% on an annual basis”.
According to Confetra, the emergency is reflected with extreme violence on air shipments, which had already closed 2025 down by 6.1%. In March 2026, the need for alternative routes to avoid prohibited areas caused a 38% jump in rates compared to February. This dynamic is fueled by the doubling of the jet fuel price, year-on-year, and by the need to carry larger quantities of fuel on board to cover longer journeys, consequently reducing the space available for goods.
Road transport, which was a protagonist of a positive 2025 with 6.3% growth in national traffic, is now also under pressure due to the surge in energy costs. In Italy, the price of diesel has reached 2,045.6 euros per 1,000 litres, a value 29% higher than a year ago. Considering that energy costs represent about 30% of operating expenses, the increase in business costs for road haulage has already reached 9% year-on-year. The issue of the tax credit, for which the sector is still awaiting the relevant interministerial decree, is therefore central.
In this scenario of extreme uncertainty, technological innovation, emerges from Confetra’s analysis, struggles to take off. Only 6% of companies currently adopt Artificial Intelligence solutions, a tool that would instead be crucial for optimizing routes and managing the impact of costs in real time. A positive signal, however, comes from investments in human capital, with 51% of companies consistently focusing on digital training.
“For 2026, a climate of extreme caution prevails – concludes President De Ruvo – in the worst-case scenario, if the conflict were to persist, GDP growth could be one percentage point lower than estimates, with inflation exceeding 1.5 points. In this delicate phase, the ability to analyze data and react promptly to geopolitical changes represents the only real defense for the competitiveness of the national logistics system”.
