As shippers rush to avoid further fuel surcharges and US tariffs, container spot rates have surged further.
According to Freightos Baltic Index data, rates on the Asia to US West Coast route have exceeded $6,/FEU, up 25% since June 15; rates on the Asia to US East Coast route have risen by $1,400 to $8,/FEU.
Freight intelligence platform Xeneta noted that since the outbreak of the US-Iran conflict on February 28, spot rates on these two routes have accumulated increases of 192% and 158% respectively, and the impact is unlikely to dissipate in the short term.
Xeneta Chief Analyst Peter Sand stated that shippers are shipping goods ahead of July fuel surcharge hikes and capacity concerns, with many being told that space on Asia-origin routes is fully booked for the coming weeks, and those able to load are paying a premium. However, he also noted that fuel surcharge pressure should ease quickly, as bunker fuel and overall oil prices have fallen about 20% over the past ten days.
But the US-Iran peace agreement will not immediately unblock passage through the Strait of Hormuz.
Sand added that as long as the Strait of Hormuz is not fully navigable, spot rates will continue to climb. This situation may last four weeks or longer, depending on the complexity of mine-clearing operations. Shippers should prepare for rates to peak around the time the strait officially reopens, followed by a gradual decline.
The container freight market continued to heat up this week, with Drewry’s World Container Index (WCI) rising 12% week-on-week to $3,/FEU, hitting an 18-month high. This increase was mainly driven by higher rates on transpacific and Asia-Europe routes. Six blank sailings have been announced on transpacific routes for the coming week, reflecting proactive capacity management by carriers.
The agency added that shippers are shipping goods ahead of expected US tariff adjustments in July, driving demand higher, and carriers are pushing up rates by imposing surcharges.
Additionally, Drewry data shows that spot rates on the Shanghai to Rotterdam and Shanghai to Genoa routes rose by 15% and 12% respectively. Only three blank sailings have been announced on these routes for the coming week, indicating tightening capacity.
Currently, carriers have announced further increases in peak season surcharges (PSS) and general rate increases (FAK) starting July, which is expected to continue exerting upward pressure on spot rates.
