Investors might be tempted to look to the past to justify the plausibility of the price targets issued by Saylor and Ark. After all, despite its recent losses, Bitcoin is still sitting on a return of 9,640% over the last decade, so it has outperformed every other major asset class, whether it be stocks, real estate, or actual gold. But in a moment, I’ll explain why past performance isn’t a reliable indicator of future results.
Global governments are rapidly debasing their fiat currencies, so it’s only rational that investors and consumers would find an alternative like Bitcoin highly appealing. However, it isn’t even close to achieving mainstream adoption; according to crypto directory Cryptwerk, fewer than 7,000 businesses worldwide accept it as payment for goods and services. That is a drop in the bucket compared to the 358 million active businesses around the globe.
Since Bitcoin can’t even build traction as a payment solution, I find it highly unlikely that it will suddenly become the world’s reserve currency, as Saylor suggests.
In my opinion, Bitcoin has also failed as a digital alternative to gold. Last year, in the face of soaring government debt and heightened economic uncertainty triggered by the Trump administration’s “Liberation Day” tariffs, Bitcoin declined by 5%, while actual gold rocketed higher by 64%. In other words, when it was time for investors to choose a safe-haven asset, they flocked to the shiny yellow metal and shunned the cryptocurrency.
There is still a lot of time left in 2026, but Bitcoin is currently on track for its second-straight year of losses, an event that has never happened before. Therefore, investors who are relying on its incredible past performance to support ambitious future forecasts should keep in mind that historical trends aren’t always reliable.
In summary, it has never been harder to make a bullish case for owning Bitcoin, so I don’t think investors should buy it right now.
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Anthony Di Pizio has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has positions in and recommends Bitcoin. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.
Should You Buy Bitcoin While It’s Under $70,000? The Answer Might Surprise You. was originally published by The Motley Fool
