The WTO said that world goods trade remained remarkably resilient despite mounting geopolitical tensions and disruptions to shipping routes through the Strait of Hormuz, one of the world’s most important energy transit corridors. While the conflict began in the final month of the quarter, the WTO cautioned that its full impact on trade flows is likely to become more visible in second-quarter data.
According to the report, “world merchandise trade growth exceeded expectations in the first quarter of 2026 as surging trade in electronic components related to artificial intelligence (AI) offset the negative impact of the conflict in the Middle East”.
Seasonally adjusted world merchandise trade volumes increased by 1.9% compared with the previous quarter and were up 3.2% year-on-year during the first three months of 2026.
The strength of the figures was particularly notable because the first quarter of 2025 had already been boosted by a wave of import frontloading in North America ahead of anticipated tariff increases. Despite that elevated comparison base, trade continued to expand, driven largely by investments linked to AI infrastructure and technology development.
The WTO highlighted the extraordinary growth in AI-related trade, stating that “the US dollar value of this trade was up more than 40% year-on-year in the first quarter”.
That technology-driven momentum helped compensate for the negative effects of the conflict, including shipping disruptions, higher energy prices and weaker economic growth among fuel-importing countries.
Growth, but for how long?
Nevertheless, WTO economists believe the balance between these opposing forces remains uncertain.
“The global impact, meanwhile, will depend on whether it will be the AI boom or the Middle East conflict that predominates,” the report stated.
The WTO’s most recent Global Trade Outlook and Statistics forecast projected merchandise trade growth of 1.9% for the entire year under its baseline scenario. The first-quarter increase of 3.2% therefore surpassed those expectations. However, economists cautioned that forecasts were made early in the conflict and before the full extent of shipping disruptions had become clear.
The organisation also noted that earlier estimates suggested the conflict could reduce global trade growth by 0.5 percentage points under a high-energy-price scenario, while continued AI-related investment could contribute an equivalent positive boost.
Regional performance, meanwhile, was sharply divided. The Middle East emerged as the main casualty of the conflict. The WTO reported that the region’s seasonally adjusted export volumes fell 9.7% year-on-year in the first quarter, while imports dropped 11.9%. Larger declines are expected during the second quarter as the consequences of the war become more fully reflected in trade statistics.
Trade in key commodities from the region suffered particularly severe disruptions.
WTO estimates showed the volume of global crude oil imports from the Middle East was down roughly 45% year-on-year in March. Imports of liquefied natural gas declined by 52%, while fertilizer imports fell 26% over the same period.
In contrast, Asia was the standout performer, benefiting directly from strong demand for AI-enabling products and components.
The WTO reported that seasonally adjusted Asian exports rose 12.9% year-on-year while imports increased 14.6%.
The organization noted that much of the expansion reflected intensive intra-regional trade in AI-related products, with strong export growth not only from China but also from Singapore, the Republic of Korea, Thailand and Chinese Taipei.
The report observed that “much of the rise in Asia was due to intra-regional circulation of AI-enabling goods”.
North America also recorded solid export growth, with shipments increasing 7.0% year-on-year. Imports, however, fell 10.7% compared with the unusually strong first quarter of 2025, when businesses accelerated purchases ahead of expected tariff hikes. Despite the annual decline, quarterly import growth remained positive at 3.4%.
Europe experienced more modest performance. Export volumes declined 2.6% year-on-year, largely due to exceptionally strong shipments of gold and pharmaceuticals to North America in the comparable period of 2025. Imports posted a slight rise of 0.6%.
Elsewhere, South America continued to show resilience. Although first-quarter export growth was limited, the region has recorded a cumulative export increase of 22.5% since the start of 2023, second only to Asia’s 33.4% gain. The WTO expects petroleum-producing countries in South America, Africa and the Commonwealth of Independent States to benefit in coming months as they seek to compensate for reduced Middle Eastern output.
AI drive
Product-level trade data further illustrates the scale of the AI-driven boom. The strongest-performing merchandise category in the first quarter was office and telecommunications equipment, where trade values surged 44% year-on-year. Ores and other minerals recorded growth of 27%, while other machinery advanced 9%.
The WTO said that “much of the strong increase in the office and telecom sector can be attributed to the ongoing demand for AI-enabling technologies”.
Not all sectors benefited from the positive trend, however.
Chemicals, iron and steel, and fuels all registered declines in value terms. Meanwhile, metal and mineral prices excluding gold and silver were reported to be 32% higher than a year earlier.
Looking at exporters, Asia again dominated. The value of exports from the region climbed 20% year-on-year, fuelled by precious metals, copper, machinery, electrical equipment and ores. Africa and South and Central America each recorded 14% growth. The only regions to post export declines were the Middle East and the Commonwealth of Independent States, both of which fell by 1%.
Among the world’s leading exporting economies, the Republic of Korea posted the strongest growth rate at 38.4%, narrowly ahead of Hong Kong, China at 38.3%. The US recorded export growth of 15.2%, China achieved 14.7%, and the European Union expanded by 9.2%.
On the import side, Asia and Africa led growth with increases of 22% and 15% respectively. The United States was the only one of the top five importing markets to experience a decline, with merchandise imports falling 13.6% year-on-year.
Overall, the WTO’s latest analysis suggests that investment linked to artificial intelligence has become a major force shaping global trade patterns. Whether that momentum can continue to outweigh the widening effects of conflict in the Middle East is up for debate.
Source: Baltic Exchange
