Brazil: Soybean exports will reach a record due to United States exit from the market

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/Reuters Agency

Brazil’s soybean exports are expected to reach 102.2 million tons by the end of October 2025, surpassing the annual volumes for all of 2024 and 2023. This reflects the absence of US competitors supplying Chinese importers, according to data from the grain export group Anec.

The previous historical mark for soybean shipments from Brazil – the world’s largest producer and exporter – was set in 2023 with 101.3 million tons, according to Anec figures.

In addition to harvesting a record soybean production exceeding 170 million tons in 2025, Brazilian farmers are benefiting from strong demand in China, which is immersed in a tariff war with the United States.

“China remains the main destination and driver of Brazilian soybean shipments,” stated Anec. The entity’s data showed that the Asian country imported 6.5 million tons from Brazil in September, representing 93% of the total exported, maintaining a historically high share in shipment volumes from the South American country.

By relying mainly on Brazil to guarantee supply, China received 79.9% of the total Brazilian soybean shipments, compared to 74% between 2021 and 2024. In 2024, China’s share was 76%, according to Anec.

The projections for the year were published in the first monthly shipment report corresponding to October, a month in which Anec estimates shipments of 7.12 million tons, almost 2.7 million more than in the same month last year.

For the current calendar year, Anec projects that 110 million tons of Brazilian soybeans will be exported. “Between November and December, the shipment of another 8 million tons is expected, which corroborates the annual estimate of 110 million tons,” the association indicated.

Corn shipments reached 6 million tons this month, approximately 380,000 tons more than the volume recorded a year earlier.

From the start of the year through October, exports are estimated at 30 million tons, positioning Brazil as the world’s second-largest exporter of this grain, behind the United States.