The long-awaited launch of Guinea’s Simandou iron ore project is poised to boost Capesize freight prospects, with China maintaining a key role on the demand side of the equation
“With the Simandou iron ore project now officially underway, Capesize freight prospects are poised for renewed strength heading into 2026 and beyond,” said BRS Shipbrokers head of dry bulk research, Wilson Wirawan, in comments to Riviera.
Operations have commenced at Africa’s largest greenfield integrated mining and infrastructure project. Simandou’s partners reported that testing and commissioning of the mine, rail and barge port infrastructure are in progress, with stakeholders already transporting iron ore from the mine gate to the port via the trans-Guinean rail line.
According to Kpler data, the first cargo from the Simandou iron ore mine is currently being loaded. Newcastlemax bulk carrier Winning Youth has been met offshore Guinea by barge Winning Morebaya 4 and transhipment vessel Winning Simandou 1, said Kpler senior lead dry bulks insight, Alexis Ellender, in a social media post.
Following commissioning and ramp-up, the project’s infrastructure is expected to support exports of up to 120M tonnes per year of mined iron ore.
Exceptional growth in West African trade
Mr Wirawan told Riviera that Guinean bauxite exports have already been a game changer for large ore carrier freight dynamics.
Back in 2021, tonne-days generated on the Guinea–China route ranked a distant third behind Brazil–China and Australia–China. “Fast forward to 2025, and the picture has shifted dramatically,” he explained.
Between January and October 2025, tonne-days from Guinea to China – driven primarily by bauxite shipments – have surged, pushing the combined Brazil and Guinea to China fronthaul tonne-days nearly 58% higher than those on the Australia–China route, which remains the leading Capesize trade flow.
