Iron ore exports out of Africa will be one of the great drivers of growth for global maritime trades for the rest of the 2020s, new research from broker SYS shows.
Guinea’s Simandou mine alone delivers 60 million tonnes of iron ore in its first full year, with production, which will start in 2025, expected to double to 120 million tonnes the following year, according to Guinea’s Minister of Mines and Geology. The project is expected to contribute 10% of China’s seaborne iron ore demand annually.
The global trade map for iron ore is set for a redrawing
Just 200 km away, the Kon Kweni project by Ivanhoe Atlantic is expected to produce up to 5 million tonnes of iron ore when its first phase opens next year, and the second phase expansion is expected to see this figure rise to 30 million per year.
“Beyond these larger mines, Africa is full of smaller but promising projects,” noted SSY in a monthly market update, pointing to Genmin’s Baniaka Project and Fortescue’s Belinga Project, both in Gabon, as well as Arcelormittal’s western range expansion in Liberia and Jindal Africa’s project in Namibia.
“As West African mines muscle out higher-cost producers elsewhere, particularly in Australia, the global trade map for iron ore is set for a redrawing,” suggested SSY, something which could see a “notable increase” for tonne-mile demand.
“On the Panamax front, Liberia’s new iron ore wealth could reshape trade flows linked to Europe, potentially displacing high-cost Canadian exports,” added SSY.
Africa’s growing prominence will be a key talking point during next month’s iron ore session at Dry Genevathe world’s premier bulk shipping conference.
Arguably the biggest constraint facing Africa’s exports is adequate infrastructure. Splash has repeatedly reported on the volumes of bauxite shipping from West Africa in recent years. However, ports are struggling to meet demand as evidenced at the port of Boffa, where ship traffic has built up dramatically in recent weeks (see map below) with one Cape seen in the queue since January 18 and another kicking its heels since January 24. The growing West African queues have helped push Cape rates above $20,000 per day recently.
Starting with the Informa group in 2000 in Hong Kong, Sam Chambers became editor of Maritime Asia magazine, as well as East Asia editor for the world’s oldest newspaper, Lloyd’s List. In 2005 he followed an independent career and wrote for a variety of titles including taking on the role of Asia editor for Seatrade magazine and China correspondent for Supply Chain Asia. His work has also appeared in The Economist, The New York Times, The Sunday Times and the International Herald Tribune.
March 13, 2025
March 13, 2025
March 12, 2025
March 12, 2025
March 12, 2025
Read more
