In 2025, emissions trading under the EU ETS alone is estimated to add more than $6 billion in costs to global shipping. According to cost estimates by shipping emissions analytics company Siglar Carbon, the tangle of regional and global carbon pricing schemes could push this bill to over $50 billion annually by the end of the decade.
The total includes overlapping measures such as the EU ETS, FuelEU Maritime, the UK ETS, and the IMO’s Greenhouse Gas Fuel Intensity (GFI) measure, which will come into effect from 2028.
The Norway-based company stated that if all plans are implemented together and other countries follow the EU’s lead by implementing local emissions levies, the total annual carbon bill for shipping could reach $100 billion by 2030.
According to LSEG Research estimates, European carbon prices could reach $150 per tonne of CO₂ by 2030, which could increase the cost burden for operators and charterers still reliant on conventional fuels.
Siglar analysts noted, “When carbon is priced, it changes everything from chartering to vessel financing,” stating that emissions now have a measurable commercial value on every voyage.
The IMO’s GFI will effectively introduce a global carbon levy on all international shipping. Estimates suggest it could create a $22 billion compliance cost when it enters into force in 2028, rising to $33 billion two years later.
For ship owners and operators, carbon pricing has moved from being an environmental metric to a core commercial variable. It now impacts Time Charter Equivalent (TCE) returns, voyage planning, and contract terms. For financiers and insurers, carbon exposure is emerging as a new category of operational and credit risk. This risk needs to be monitored and priced with the same precision as freight fluctuations or fuel costs.
Source:
