Even though negotiations for a peace plan between Israel and Hamas based on Trump’s 20-point plan are now set to begin, there is initially nothing to suggest that an agreement will lead the major shipping companies to return to the routes through the Red Sea, writes Vespucci’s Lars Jensen in a post on LinkedIn.
The crisis in the region has now lasted for 682 days, and shipping continues to be severely impacted by the persistent threats from Houthi rebels, who are attacking commercial ships in the area as part of their support for Hamas.
Lars Jensen points out that a ceasefire in January 2025 also did not lead to a resumption of traffic through the Suez Canal. Even though the Houthis at that time declared they would refrain from attacks as long as the ceasefire held, the shipping companies remained skeptical.
“They were probably concerned about the lifespan of the ceasefire agreement, and operationally it would be extremely disruptive to first move networks back to Suez only to then quickly have to make a U-turn and go back around Africa. The peace plan collapsed in March, and the Houthis immediately resumed what they call a blockade of the Red Sea,” writes Lars Jensen.
He points out that a potential new ceasefire is unlikely to change the picture in the short term. The shipping companies will require a longer period of documented stability before they send large container ships through Suez again.
Until then, traffic continues along the longer, more expensive route around Africa – a solution that appears to be becoming the standard, as long as the uncertainty in the Red Sea persists.
The negotiations on Trump’s peace plan will be initiated today, where representatives from the USA, Hamas, and Israel are to meet in the Egyptian city of Sharm el-Sheikh.
According to Donald Trump, Israel has accepted the agreement, while Hamas has partially accepted it.
-emte
