Thanks to a surge in Brazil’s crude oil exports to China, the Very Large Crude Carrier (VLCC) market is experiencing a boom. According to data from shipping analytics platform Signal Ocean, Brazil’s crude oil shipments to China soared to a record 93.6 million barrels in the second quarter of this year—a 53% jump from the first quarter and a 60% year-on-year increase.
Signal Ocean data shows that China now absorbs about 40% of Brazil’s crude oil exports, solidifying its dominance in the country’s energy export market. Meanwhile, China is prioritizing long-haul Brazilian crude, with nearly all related shipments transported via VLCCs.
Behind this trend lies China’s strategic considerations for crude supply stability amid complex geopolitical dynamics. Compared to the high-risk sensitivities of the Middle East, long-haul crude from Brazil is seen as a “low political risk, high strategic value” option.
Brazil’s state-owned oil company Petrobras plays a key role in this shift. The firm continues to expand spot and long-term contract supplies to Chinese buyers, including major players like Unipec and Sinochem Group.
Additionally, China has recently accelerated its strategic petroleum reserve (SPR) replenishment, capitalizing on a temporary dip in global oil prices in early 2025 to secure low-cost purchases. At the same time, independent refineries in Shandong have ramped up procurement activity, driven by relaxed import quotas and improved refining margins, further boosting sustained demand for Brazilian crude.
Beyond oil trade, Petrobras is leveraging Chinese partnerships to revive its domestic shipbuilding industry. Its shipping subsidiary Transpetro has proposed a plan to build 25 new vessels by 2030 and has signed preliminary cooperation agreements with multiple Chinese shipyards, aiming to bring in Chinese investment to restart shipbuilding operations.
The VLCC shipping market is tangibly benefiting from the boom in the China-Brazil trade route. Signal data reveals that since March 2025, the seven-day moving average of “crude ton-miles” on the Brazil-China route has exceeded 2 billion ton-miles—double the figures from 2023 and 2024. Given that the round-trip voyage from Brazil to China takes about 100 days—far longer than the 60-day cycle for Middle East-Asia routes—VLCC availability in the Atlantic region is rapidly tightening.
“As China continues to purchase large volumes of Brazilian crude, VLCC capacity is being heavily locked in the Atlantic, putting upward pressure on global VLCC rates,” Signal analysts noted. “If this strong flow persists, it could further tighten VLCC supply in the Middle East Gulf, reshaping the global market.”
However, some market voices remain cautious. A recent Platts report suggests that while OPEC+ may gradually ease production cuts in the third quarter, increasing global supply, weak summer demand and lingering geopolitical uncertainties are expected to keep the VLCC market under pressure in the near term.
