China’s decision to resume large-scale purchases of US soybeans is set to boost US agriculture and the dry bulk shipping market, according to BIMCO. Under the new trade agreement, China will buy 12 million tonnes of U.S. soybeans for the rest of 2025 and 25 million tonnes annually through 2028, matching pre-trade-war volumes. BIMCO’s Filipe Gouveia said the move should trigger a short-term surge in US exports, benefiting Panamax bulk carriers, which handle most soybean shipments to China. US soybean exports have fallen 27% this year amid a 65% drop in sales to China, but renewed buying could reverse that trend. The shift may also reduce South American exports, though tonne-mile demand is expected to remain strong as many US shipments now sail via the Cape of Good Hope, extending voyage distances.
