A complete reopening of the Strait of Hormuz will not be enough to stop the progressive weakening of the container shipping market. The alarm is raised by BIMCO, through its chief analyst, Neil Rasmussen.
“Even if the Strait of Hormuz were to reopen, significant uncertainty will remain that will continue to influence market results,” the expert analyst stated, highlighting how the sector is grappling with an unstable mix of geopolitical and political risks. These include: the stability of the agreement between the United States and Iran, the actual timeline for the full reopening of Hormuz, the return of vessels to normal Suez routes, and the evolution of the market when, on July 24 next, the 10% emergency tariffs introduced by the United States government expire.
These uncertainties outline two mirror-image scenarios. In the first scenario, assuming the complete reopening of the Strait of Hormuz in the third quarter of 2026, BIMCO forecasts a growth in maritime transport demand of 2.5-4.5% in the 2026-2027 biennium. Supply, on the other hand, will rise by 3-4% in 2026, then accelerate to /5% in 2027.
The second scenario, instead, assumes that the Strait remains closed: in this case, demand will increase by 1-3% year-on-year in both 2026 and 2027, while fleet capacity will grow by 2.5-3.5% in 2026, reaching 4-5% in 2027.
In the short term, the strong push from other trade routes has partially cushioned the impact of the blockages in the Middle East. In the first months of 2026, global container volumes grew by 5.1% year-on-year, driven by intra-Asian traffic and routes from East and Southeast Asia to Europe. Conversely, flows related to the Persian Gulf have contracted.
“In both scenarios analyzed, we assume that most vessels continue to sail via the Cape of Good Hope,” BIMCO’s chief analyst further specifies, warning: “If vessels were to return to the normal Red Sea and Suez Canal routes, global transport demand could drop by about 10%, significantly weakening the balance between supply and demand.”
On the supply side, a substantial orderbook and a low level of demolitions continue to drive fleet growth. The orderbook has reached 12.9 million TEU (38.5% of the current fleet).
BIMCO estimates for the period between the end of 2025 and the end of 2027 foresee the delivery of 4.4 million TEU and a total fleet growth of 12.7%.
The conclusion of the analysis leaves no room for doubt: regardless of geopolitical developments in the Gulf, cargo space supply is set to run faster than real demand.
“In both hypothesized scenarios – admits Rasmussen – the oversupply relative to demand will weaken the market, regardless of how the crisis in the Middle Eastern Gulf evolves.”
