Genoa Shipping Week: the director of the research center does not believe the Mediterranean will lose its centrality. “In 2024, 12,740 ships passed through Suez, 97 through the pole”
Genoa – “We do not see the risk of the Arctic route, at least in the immediate term, therefore we do not see risks of the Mediterranean losing its centrality.” The numbers say so, explains Massimo Deandreis, director of SRM, a research and study center, speaking at the conference on maritime freight organized by the Young Members of Assagenti during the Genoa Shipping Week. “The Suez Canal was never closed, even though there is talk of a Suez blockade – he says – In 2024, 12,740 ships passed through. And from the Arctic route in the same period, from January 1st to December 31st, 97 ships passed through. That’s 97 ships versus 12,740 in the year when there was a 50% drop in transits through Suez. So let’s keep the proportions in mind.” In short, the danger of a shift in routes with the marginalization of the Mediterranean would not be current and perhaps simply does not exist.
Meanwhile, traffic in the Suez Canal in the months of August and September marked a first timid reversal of the trend, rising, while transits via the Cape of Good Hope with the circumnavigation of Africa, which had become the main route since the end of 2023 to avoid Houthi attacks, are slightly down. The explosion of the Cape of Good Hope and the decline of Suez is evident when comparing the numbers between January 2024 and September 2025 with those from January 2022 to September 2023, which shows a 50% decrease in transits. “However, in August and September we already see a bit of a trend reversal and there are the premises for Suez to ‘re-overtake’ the Cape of Good Hope – says Deandreis –. Because it is true that the Houthi issue is not resolved and all the reasons why they are there are not yet resolved, but it is equally true that the crisis in the Middle East was the ideal platform for the export of their problem. So if there was already an interruption at the worst time, just improving the regional context would be enough to see a significant recovery of Suez, which remains central.”
Yesterday the peace agreement in the Middle East was signed, while today the USTR United States Trade Representative comes into effect, the US tax imposed on ships of Chinese operators or built in China that call at US ports. The scenario is constantly moving and creates uncertainty, and the geopolitical situation of strong uncertainty is one of the phenomena that can influence freight rates in the future. Within this are the routes and there are the tariffs and the relationship between the United States and China which, depending on the different scenarios in which it will evolve, from a push towards a Chinese economy more oriented towards domestic consumption and less pushed to export its production surplus, or conversely a US closure that pushes China to shift more and more of its exports towards Europe, could produce completely different effects on world trade and routes.
In any case, “in a world that is becoming somewhat regionalized with opposing blocs – Asia, China, the United States, Europe – there is however a need for a point of contact and the only true point of contact for all areas of the world is the Mediterranean, because it allows the connection of Asia, Europe, Africa, so Gibraltar is the connection to the Atlantic and Suez is the connection to Asia and this element of strength will not change,” says Deandreis. Therefore, the Mediterranean will remain central.
Participants of the conference “Noli marittimi: between trends and contracts” discussed these and other, more technical, topics. Following the introduction by the President of the Assagenti Youth Group, Lorenzo Giacobbe, speeches were given by Lorenzo Greco, Vice President of the Istituto Affari Internazionali, and subsequently by entrepreneurs including Aldo Negri (Finsea-Shipping lines), Vincenzo Romeo (Nova Marine), the Presidents of Federagenti, Paolo Pessina, of Assarmatori, Stefano Messina, the Vice President of Fedespedi, Matteo Somma, and the Director General of Confitarma, Luca Sisto.
