The container shipping market is showing a growing disconnect between freight rates and charter markets, according to Drewry Maritime Research.
The consultancy expects this divergence to persist through most of next year before a correction occurs.
Containership charter rates remain on a steady upward trajectory in 2025, standing at around 200% above 2019 levels despite falling spot freight rates.
Drewry attributes this sustained growth to tight vessel availability and long-term charter commitments that lag short-term market movements.
Major liner operators such as MSC and CMA CGM have absorbed large volumes of second-hand tonnage, reducing the fleet available to non-operating owners (NOOs).
The liner-owned fleet share has risen from 54% in late 2019 to 64% in early October 2025. Drewry notes that this structural shift limits market liquidity and strengthens owners’ pricing power.
Geopolitical disruptions, including insecurity in the Red Sea, have also contributed to longer voyage times as carriers reroute ships via the Cape of Good Hope.
These detours reduce effective vessel availability and increase demand for chartered ships.
Additionally, carriers are locking in long-term charters to ensure service reliability and hedge against future volatility. Drewry highlights rising interest in fuel-efficient, dual-fuel, and environmentally compliant vessels, driven by emissions-related regulations under the IMO and EU ETS.
This has created a scarcity premium for compliant tonnage.
Drewry forecasts that most vessel size ranges up to 8,500 TEU will see incremental year-on-year charter rate improvements in 2026, while average global freight rates are expected to decline by about 16%.
However, the firm anticipates a correction will eventually occur as demand growth slows, profit margins narrow, newbuilds enter the market, and Suez Canal transits potentially resume.
Drewry Maritime Research is a division of Drewry Group Ltd., a UK-based maritime consultancy providing data, analysis, and advisory services to the global shipping and logistics industry. Its flagship publication, Container Forecaster, offers quarterly forecasts and analytical insights into global container trade, freight rates, carrier profitability, and charter markets.
