The Industrial Production Index (IPI) from FIEL recorded a 3.9% decline in February in the year-on-year comparison, chaining eight consecutive months of contraction. The first two-month period of 2026 accumulates an identical drop (-3.9%) compared to the same period in 2025.
Three factors partially explain the result: February was a short month in business days due to the Carnival holidays—which in 2025 fell in March—, the general strike in the middle of the month subtracted productive days, and conversely, plant shutdowns carried out a year ago improved the comparison base for some activities.
IPI Results — February 2026
-3.9%Year-on-YearFeb 26 vs Feb 258 months of decline-2.6%MonthlyFeb vs JanWith seasonality+0.5%Seasonally AdjustedFeb vs Jan s.e.2nd month of advance-3.9%AccumulatedTwo-month period 26 vs 25Jan-Feb 2026NegativePositive
Source: FIEL, Press Release No. 1085, March 25, 2026
Second month of advance
In seasonally adjusted terms, industrial production in February grew 0.5% compared to January, accumulating two consecutive months of advance. The activity low was recorded in September 2025, configuring a potential turning point (trough) of the industrial recession that began in February of that year.
The signs of recovery are still weak: since September, industrial production has been advancing at an annualized rate of 4.1%, low compared to previous recovery episodes since 1980 according to FIEL’s IPI. The sectoral diffusion of the improvement remains limited.
Sectoral ranking
Oil refining (+7%) and basic metal industries (+6.9%) led the sectoral ranking in the first two-month period. They were the only sectors with significant growth. At the opposite extreme, the automotive industry plummeted 30.3%. Below is the detail for each sector:
Food and beverages (+0.9%): slightly surpassed last year’s level. Within the category, the advance of national milk production and the increase in pork slaughter continue to stand out. In contrast, beef slaughter falls for the eighth consecutive month in a context where the recomposition of the livestock stock temporarily restricts supply with an effect on domestic prices.
Chemical and plastic inputs (-2.7%): continued to reduce the pace of decline compared to previous months, with advances in basic petrochemicals, agrochemicals, and soaps. Tire production was affected by the cessation of activity at one of the three main companies in the sector in the middle of the month.
Metal-mechanical (-6.2%): declined due to the decrease in auto parts and household durable goods.
Automotive (-30.3%): recorded the largest sectoral decline, with a deeper retreat in car production. The scenario is comprehensive: exports, wholesale sales, and new vehicle registrations contracted again.
IPI Results — February 2026
Variation
%
February 2026 / February 2025
-3.9%
February 2026 / January 2026 (seasonally adjusted)
-2.6%
February 2026 / January 2026 (seasonally adjusted)
+0.5%
First two months 2026 / First two months 2025
-3.9%
Source: FIEL, Press Release No. 1085, March 25, 2026
By type of good
Non-durable consumer goods practically matched the level of the previous year (-0.1%): the improvement in food did not offset the contraction in beverages and cigarettes. Intermediate goods fell 1.4%, dragged down by chemicals, plastics, textile inputs and /cellulose.
Durable consumer goods fell 15.8% due to the production of automobiles and household appliances, while capital goods contracted 18.3% due to lower production of utility vehicles and agricultural machinery.
Middle East adds pressure to costs
FIEL warns that in addition to the challenges of the local context in terms of competition and weak demand faced by the industry, there is the potential impact of the Middle East conflict on direct energy costs and indirect costs associated with the logistics of inputs and final goods.
In summary, in a short month, the industry again showed a year-on-year decline, chaining eight months of contraction, with a sharp decline in automotive production. Adjusted for seasonal factors, manufacturing activity recorded a second monthly advance, having hit a low last September since when it shows a modest advance and a low diffusion of the improvement.
Industrial Production by Sectors — Var. % First Two Months 2026 vs 2025
Sector
Var. %
Observations
Processed oil
+7.0%
Leads the ranking
Basic metals
+6.9%
—
Food and beverages
+0.9%
Dairy and pork advance; beef falls
Textile inputs
-2.1%
—
Chemical and plastic inputs
-2.7%
Tires affected by closure
General IPI
-3.9%
8 months of contraction
Metalworking
-6.2%
Auto parts and household durables
Paper and cellulose
-6.3%
—
Cigarettes
-7.1%
—
Non-metallic minerals
-9.6%
—
Motor vehicles
-30.3%
Exports, sales, registrations fall
Source: FIEL, Press Release No. 1085, March 25, 2026
